99W (Future tropical cyclone VARDAH) Entering Bay of Bengal

DECEMBER 2, 2016, FRIDAY

Even as a weak Nada dissipates ( disappointing rain starved Tamil Nadu) the potentially big future tropical cyclone VARDAH has quietly entered the Bay of Bengal from South China Sea.

At presently 99W is slipping into straits of Malacca, drenching southern Thailand and northern Malaysia.

In the next 2-3 days the system will move roughly in a north-westerly direction crossing Indian Nicobar islands. By December 6-7 it will have intensified into tropical cyclone. Model forecasts predict that it may attain a minimum central pressure of 954 hPa by December 7-8. That is a category 2-3 hurricane going by US standards.

But by the time it hits the Andhra Pradesh coast on December 10, 2016 it may weaken. But even then it will be a powerful storm.

UPDATE: DECEMBER 3, 2016, SATURDAY 

99W has crossed into the Bay of Bengal. It lies presently just above the Malacca Straits as a low pressure area. Reliable forecast models persist with their prediction that this cluster of thunderstorms will intensify into a powerful tropical cyclone VARDAH in the next 4-5 days.

The bad news for Andhra Pradesh is that the storm will be at its peak just before landfall on December 10-11, 2016. Our estimate is sustained ten minutes wind speed then will be 150 km/h, gusts upto 180 km/h. Quite a nasty storm.

Interestingly, there is disagreement amongst various forecast models on the track and intensity of tropical cyclone VARDAH. The American GFS model predicts a hit on Odisha-Bengal on December 8. It expects a much weaker cyclone.

UPDATE, DECEMBER 4, 2016

Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast models agree that future tropical cyclone VARDAH will hit the Andhra coast at Machilipatnam. But they disagree on the date of landfall. One says 9th December, the other says Dec 11. The storm is likely to have 10 minute sustained winds of about 90-100 km/h just before impact.



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