Another Arabian Sea Storm By June 18, 2015?

Weather forecast models are indicating the formation of another storm in the Arabian Sea within a week, that is by June 18, 2015.

These models say the depression will form off the coast of Maharashtra on June 17, 2015. It is unclear whether it will intensify into a deep depression or a tropical storm.

The European computer model ECMWF hints at a tropical cyclone near the Gujarat coast on June 19, 2015.

It is too early to say anything with conviction. We can only say that computer models are hinting at another storm in a week in the Arabian Sea this June 2015.

WE HAVE A VALID REASON......

 We make the above prediction after looking at the 850 mb wind maps of the GFS and ECMWF of that forecast period.

 There is near similarity between the two. Only difference is the GFS predicts a low in Konkan south of Mumbai. The European model predicts the low developing further north.

 The strong monsoon current will extend from the African coast near Somalia.

 The first map below is the GFS forecast of June 21. The second is the ECMWF forecast of June 20, 2015.

 This system will reinforce monsoons in western and northwestern India.

GFS FORECAST MAP JUNE 21, 2015

THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECAST MAP SHOWING THE SITUATION ON JUNE 20, 2015