JUNE 16, 2016
The problem with monsoon 2016 is the Arabian Sea branch. It is sluggish, slow and lethargic. On June 8 it mustered its strength and managed to crawl into Kerala, Karnataka. But after that it seems have fainted again. It is yet to enter Goa.
In contrast the Bay of Bengal stream is vigorous. It threw out a tropical cyclone ROANU in May. While its western sibling is dithering, it has entered Indian NE states with a bang. It has reached Bangladesh and in the next 3-4 days it will advance into West Bengal, Odisha, Rayalseema, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. It will push into Vidarbha and Marathwad soon.
All this time the Arabian Sea stream has gone to sleep. No low pressure areas or depressions. Just some miserable showers over Kerala, Karnataka and Goa.
But come June 18 and it will shake off its lethargy. Rains will increase off Kerala, then there will be a deluge over coastal Karnataka, Goa on June 19-20.
But there is problem here too. The invigorated rain system over Goa will split in two. One wandering off west into the sea. Another slowly advancing into Konkan and Mumbai on June 22.
So do not expect a dramatic deluge in Mumbai with flooding rains on June 22. It will be a sedate affair.
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