Some Signs That Monsoon 2017 Is Preparing To Come

APRIL 17, 2017, MONDAY

The south west monsoon is still about 40 days away, before it arrives to an eagerly awaited welcome to the Indian subcontinent but we can discern some signs that hint at its arrival.

The first is the strong almost daily thunderstorm activity in the Indian North Eastern states, like Assam, and also in Myanmar and Bangladesh. The daily precipitation in these areas started almost a fortnight ago. A look at accumulated rainfall forecast by the reliable ECMWF model reveals that in the coming days the pre-monsoon activity is going to become very vigorous.(SEE FORECAST MAP). Moreover the thunderstorm activity is becoming vigorousl in south eastern Bay of Bengal from where the monsoon enters each year.

Secondly, the wind direction in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea has reversed in the last few weeks as the winter northeast monsoons have long departed. The winds are beginning to blow in Gujarat and parts of Sindh from the Arabian Sea. As strong pre-monsoon winds push up from Somalia.

Similarly in the Bay of Bengal moist winds are moving up north hitting Myanmar, Bangladesh and India's North East bringing pre-monsoon thunderstorms in these areas. The recent tropical cyclone MAARUTHA is going to act as a catalyst speeding up the arrival of the monsoon.

The CFS model has predicted that pre-monsoon activity is going to start in Gujarat, Sindh, Maharashtra and parts of Rajasthan in mid May itself.And that monsoon is going to become vigorous in both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal from June 1, 2017 itself. Both the seas are going to throw out at least a tropical cyclone/depression/low pressure system each in June. Good rains are expected in Odisha, Gujarat, Sindh and Oman in June.