Deluge In West Rajasthan Till July 30

UPDATE, JULY 29, 12 NOON IST

The low pressure system system over Rajasthan is rapidly weakening at a rate much faster than earlier expected. As a result the state will receive only heavy rains, not the very heavy rains earlier expected. Upto 3-4 inches expected in Jhalor, Jodhpur. Jaisalmer may only receive an inch or two.

Weather in Rajasthan will begin clearing rapidly from tomorrow itself.

JULY 29, 2017, SATURDAY 

The low pressure area which today morning lies over east Rajasthan will weaken and move to northwest Rajasthan by late tonight. It will cease to be a significant system after that. But it is going to bring very heavy rains to many parts of west Rajasthan in the next 24 hours. Notably Jaisalmer.

Even parts of southeast Rajasthan, around Udaipur, will receive heavy falls till today evening.

After dissipating over NW Rajasthan it will bring moderate to heavy rains to Punjab province of Pakistan. It's effect on Sindh province will be nominal. Areas immediately bordering western Rajasthan will receive heavy falls. But rest of Sindh will benefit little. Badin, Hyderabad may receive upto 2-3 inches. Karachi just light showers.

Interestingly, Kutch may receive moderate rainfall on Sunday as a side effect.

The monsoon will become active over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal, Jammu in the coming few days. Northern parts of Punjab province in Pakistan will see increased rainfall activity too.

Torrential Rains In Mumbai Till June 17? Or From June 17?

JUNE 11, 2017, SUNDAY 

The deluge in Mumbai will start from Monday night. And it will go on for full 5 days with little breaks in between. It is time to ring alarm bells in the mega city. Forecast models predict relentless rains in the city. Flooding is inevitable.

It will start from Konkan and then spread to the city. Parts of south Gujarat, particularly Vapi, Valsad too will face heavy rains on June 14-15. 

We base this prediction of heavy rains in Mumbai mainly on what the European model ECMWF is saying. Other models are not so sure.

According to these models it will rain in Mumbai only for 2 days, today and tomorrow. The real deluge will start only from June 17, Saturday.

Meanwhile as we said earlier, the Bay of Bengal low pressure system is preparing to move into Bangladesh. Heavy rains possible in parts of the country and Indian North Eastern states. Then monsoon will arrive in north Bengal. But the system will lose steam and the rains will move no further. That is into Bihar, Jharkhand.

The monsoon on the Arabian Sea side will subside too around June 17-18, after hammering Mumbai relentlessly for 5 days. The net result of all these activities? Monsoon will move into Konkan, Mumbai, parts of South Gujarat, Rayalseema, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, sub Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Indian NE states.

After that monsoon will go into hibernation. When will it wake up again? Hard to say now as no signs of a revival are in sight.

Disappointingly for folks in Gujarat, Sindh, and Oman, the possibility of the expected cyclonic circulation off Saurashtra coast around June 14 is receding. In short, no low pressure system seems likely in Arabian Sea for now.

Arabian Sea Low Off Saurashtra Coast By June 16

JUNE 10, 2017, SATURDAY 

Monsoon has already reached Goa and is preparing to hit hard at its next targets: Konkan and North Bengal.

The Bay of Bengal low pressure area will cross the Bangladesh coast by morning of June 12, Monday. Very heavy expected in the country from tomorrow itself. But the system may fizzle out in northern Bangladesh or in Assam, so it will bring heavy flooding rains to entire Indian north eastern states and will push monsoon into sub Himalayan West Bengal only. After that monsoon will lose steam. Bihar will have to wait.

The real action is going to happen in the Konkan region of Maharashtra. After Goa, monsoon is going hammer and tongs at Konkan. Very heavy rains expected in this region from Monday. Monsoon will arrive in Mumbai too.

But the real game changer may turn out to be an Arabian Sea low pressure system that may rise near the Dwarka coast of Saurashtra, in Gujarat state on June 16. It will start off as an cyclonic circulation off the Konkan coast by Monday then move to the seas off Saurashtra by 16, intensifying into a low.

Where it will go is not known now. It may drench Gujarat. It may move into Pakistan and drench it. It may move towards Oman. Or it may fizzle out mid sea.

This system is going to be a game changer.

Mumbai, Konkan In For Very Heavy Rains From June 11-12

JUNE 8, 2017, THURSDAY 

We are talking of flooding rains here. And they will occur between June 11-14 in north Konkan and Mumbai. So monsoon will arrive in the mega city with a Big Bang after all.

And somewhat worrying is the day and night assault by incessant rains in this region for 72 hours. Recipe for floods. This will happen because of a cyclonic circulation that is going to hover around the Mumbai coast briefly for a couple of days.

The Arabian Sea monsoon stream is going to wake up on June 10-11 with increasing precipitation off the Goa coast. This wave will slowly shift north to Konkan, Mumbai and then bang! A deluge.

There will be a respite for Mumbai during June 14-16. From June 17 more heavy rains likely in the city as a fresh monsoon rain system comes up. Gujarat will be left holding an empty bag during the Mumbai deluge. The state may expect monsoon to arrive, perhaps after June 17.

Meanwhile what of the eastern front? The Bay of Bengal. Top Indian meteorologists have pinned their hopes on the upcoming low pressure system. That it would push monsoon into many states of eastern and central India. I fear this system may turn out to be a dud. A very weak little thing that will be able to push rains only upto north Bengal and Bihar before fizzling out.

Another Bay of Bengal low is expected to form on June 16-17. One hopes it turns out stronger.

Meanwhile, the Arabian Sea monsoon too is expected to rejuvenate itself on June 16.

One hopes for the best.

How Will Monsoon Move After June 9?

JUNE 4, 2017, SUNDAY 

We have already said that the monsoon will become active from June 10, 2017. How will it move? Which states will it progress into? These are some of the questions we will try to deal with today.

In fact the intensification of the monsoon will begin earlier. From June 8, Thursday itself. 

It will happen in both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea simultaneously.

The almost docile, inert Bay of Bengal is going to spring to life after 2-3 days with massive clusters of thunderstorms sprouting throughout the Bay. It will culminate in the formation of a LPA ((low pressure area) on June 8. This rain system is going to make landfall into the Odisha coast north of Cuttack on June 11. It is expected to push monsoon's into eastern India. Northern Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and then eastern Uttar Pradesh in the following days.

The Arabian Sea which currently active in Kerala and coastal Karnataka will intensify too with heavy rainfall off the Karnataka coast from June 8-9. The wave will then advance into Goa and finally Konkan and Mumbai by June 11-12. Massive rain systems will develop off the west coast, possibly even a low pressure area. 

Monsoon is going to arrive in Mumbai on June 11-12 with a bang. Expect extensive flooding owing to the torrential rainfall.

What after Konkan/Mumbai? There opinion is divided. 

One. After flooding Mumbai the rain system goes diagonally into Maharashtra and western Madhya Pradesh. Gujarat, Rajasthan, Sindh stay thirsty.

Two. The massive rain system moves into Saurashtra, Kutch, eastern Sindh onto Rajasthan on around June 14-15. Leading to heavy rains in these regions.

POST NOTE: Monsoon's entry into Mumbai will be comparatively less dramatic than was earlier expected. No big bangs like 20 inches....30 inches...

Arabian Sea Monsoon To Lose Steam By June 4, Bay Of Bengal To The Rescue?

MAY 30, 2017, TUESDAY

Putting it in a nutshell, the Arabian Sea wing of the monsoon is going to lose some of its stamina because of the upper air cyclonic circulation/weak 'low' that will form off Goa coast on June 3-4. The hope of revival lies on the Bay of Bengal low pressure system/depression that will form off the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 7-8.

Cyclone Mora has been a knight in shining armour for the Indian rainy season. It will push monsoon into Indian northeast along with its Kerala debut. It has energised the Arabian Sea which is about to go hammer and tongs into Kerala today, coastal Karnataka tomorrow, and Goa on Thursday. Expect a very wet Kerala today.

As we said monsoon in its youthful vigour will reach Goa by June 2. Then the problem starts. The weak low pressure system that will form off the Goa coast. Now this system is going to gather a lot of monsoon's rain clouds/thunderstorms and take it for a ride to central Arabian Sea away from the Indian mainland. And the 'low' will go phut mid sea.

Even if the 'low' does not form, indications are the Arabian Sea branch of monsoon is set to lose momentum after June 5. Because the massive clusters of thunderstorms that will form off Goa on June 3-4 will drift aimlessly back into sea.

Hence do not expect a tumultuous entry of the monsoon into Mumbai. It will be more low key with a depleted monsoon trying to do its best. Expect monsoon reaching Mumbai by June 8-9. Poor Gujarat, Rajasthan will have to wait. 

Despite that good rains are expected in Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh in early June. Meanwhile rainfall activity in Kerala, Karnataka will continue to remain vigorous.

All hopes lie on the Bay of Bengal after Arabian Sea loses steam on June 4. The Bay will oblige with a big rainmaker low pressure system/depression off the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 8, 2017. Where it will go is not certain at this stage. After an Andhra landfall it could swing north towards Chattisgarh/Bihar/Jharkhand. Or it go northwest towards Telangana,Madhya Pradesh. If it moves roughly in a westerly direction Mumbai/Gujarat could see nirvana.

All hopes on the Bay of Bengal system now. The Arabian Sea stream of monsoon is expected to revive after June 8.

In fact, putting it bluntly, the Arabian Sea branch of monsoon will get stuck near Goa after June 3-4. Till how long it is hard to say now. All the rain north of that latitude (Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana) will be fed by the moisture coming from the Bay of Bengal. 

Monsoon To Make Ferocious Entry In Kerala, Karnataka

MAY 28, 2017, SUNDAY

The monsoon just entered southern Sri Lanka. But the intensity of rainfall has left 30 dead and the authorities astonished. This was just a curtain-raiser to what is going to happen when rains hit the southern Indian states in the coming 4-5 days.

The Arabian Sea branch of monsoon has been unusually quiet as it watches the Bay of Bengal churn out tropical cyclone Mora. Come May 30 and all will change.

The monsoon is set to hit Kerala and coastal Karnataka with a vengeance. The incessant wave after wave assault will continue till June 2-3. Our estimate is some parts of these states may receive 10-12 inches in 4-5 days.

Then the focus will shift to the coast off Goa on June 3. That is when the low pressure area is set to form. We have talked at length about this expected system in an earlier post. Recent forecasts say the low is going to be weak and will dissipate mid sea before reaching Oman by June 6-7.

So what is going to happen to all those rain clouds, moisture and energy the system will be carrying with it? Our guess is after the 'low' dissipates the rain clouds will slowly drift back with the monsoon winds to the Indian mainland.

The best thing that could happen for Mumbai monsoon is the Arabian Sea low pressure area does not take birth at all. In that case, monsoon's will reach the megapolis, Gujarat and Rajasthan by June 8-10.

If the system is spawned there will be a delay in onset as the 'low' will take bulk of monsoon clouds for a pointless ride to central Arabian Sea and then abandoning it.

Another possibility is the system will not form at all. Then there will be little hurdle in the march of rains up the Indian west coast.

Monsoon May Hit Kerala A Week Earlier

APRIL 23, 2017, SUNDAY

Climate forecast models are hinting that the south west monsoon may arrive in India almost a week earlier. It is likely we may see the onset in the Indian state of Kerala around May 24, 2017.

We have written about an early monsoon almost a month ago. Our conclusion is being supported by latest forecast data from the American CFS (Coupled Forecast Model).

Forecast charts for latter half of May show a sudden increase in thunderstorm activity near Cape Comorin, the coast off Kanyakumari. There will be heavy rainfall activity in Kerala and adjoining Arabian Sea.

It is possible that from that intense rainfall activity might emerge a low pressure system or even a tropical cyclone that will push early rains into Gujarat, Rajasthan and Delhi. Or a low pressure system may move to Oman by June 1.

Earlier we had predicted that the Arabian Sea will turn active from June 1, 2017. It seems nature has preponed things by a week.

Watch the Arabian Sea in the last week of May. The rain gods are going to wake up in South Asia in a month's time from now.

Timely Arrival Of Indian Monsoon In 2017 Says American Climate Model

MARCH 31, 2017

Unlike 2016, the south west monsoon will hit Kerala on time if not earlier this year if American climate forecast model, CFS, is to be believed. The rainfall season will start by the end of May in the southern state.

Pre-monsoon showers will start in the state from early May and intensify as the month progresses. There is a strong possibility that monsoon may hit the state a week earlier, around May 24, 2017.

Pre-monsoon rainfall activity will start in Karnataka, Goa, Konkan, Mumbai and Andhra in the first week of June. Even Saurashtra may receive showers in early June.

The CFS model also hints at the possibility of a depression/tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea around June 20.

Rainfall in July this year is expected to be poor despite an early onset of rains. We shall give month wise rainfall predictions at a later date.

The CFS model gives data output on a daily basis, so there is a strong chance of the forecasts changing to certain degree. We shall keep you updated on any dramatic changes in predictions.

The CFS models predicts a depression/tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea in June 2017

Indian Monsoon 2017 Forecast: Mixed Signals

MARCH 29, 2017

The bad news for India where the summer monsoon 2017 is concerned is that the hated villain, El Niño, is going to come back by August this year. We all know when El Niño comes visiting the rains dry up considerably.

That is why private weather forecaster Skymet has portended deficient rainfall for India this year. It says 95% of normal ( +\- 5%).

But there is some good news too. The knight  in shining armour, IOD, Indian Ocean Dipole is going to turn positive by August 2017. That means lots and lots of rains in South Asia.

On the whole, we think monsoon 2017 is going to be good for India and South Asia. The CFS (Climate Forecast System) too is pretty bullish, predicting good rains in August-September-October. There is a chance of a storm/ depression in the Bay of Bengal in May and in the Arabian Sea in June going by its predictions.

Good rains are expected on the Indian west coast in June according to ECMWF forecasts.

Most forecasters paint a nightmare scenario for Indian monsoon when El Niño is imminent. They are pessimistic about the Indian Ocean dipole being able to negate it's ill effects. But an article in the journal of American Meteorological Society points out that "it was found that the IOD also acts to weaken the El Niño–induced drought over India".

And the IOD is going to be strongly positive this year, hence we are hopeful of  good rains this year.

THE POSSIBILITY OF EL NINO IN AUGUST IS ONLY 50%. WE FEEL THE THREAT HAS BEEN OVER-RATED

FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST EL NINO WILL COME BY AUGUST 

IOD, INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE WILL TURN STRONGLY POSITIVE BY AUGUST 

Meanwhile thunderstorm activity has started in Indian North Eastern states early this year. A good sign.  And this will continue right till the arrival of monsoons, especially in the states of Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram.

The NMME (North American Multimodel Ensemble) model expects a depression/cyclone to bring good rains in Gujarat/Sindh in June. This model predicts a dismal rainfall picture for monsoon 2017, but it is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Almost all its forecasts for 2016 went off target.

The CFS model hints at thunderstorm activity starting in Kerala from May 10-15, 2017. Mumbai will receive its first showers by June 8, Saurashtra-Gujarat by June 12.