Two Low Pressure Systems May Hammer Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat By July End.

July 17, 2017, Monday 

The monsoon God seems to have developed a soft corner for Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. After the massive rain thrower that hit the state dumping 18 inches of rain in Rajkot city in Gujarat, forecast models hint at two more rain systems hitting the states in the coming fortnight, one after another.

SYSTEM ONE: The low has already formed in northeastern Bay of Bengal. By Friday it will cross over the Odisha/Andhra coast. By Friday it will be hitting Madhya Pradesh hard. It will move west towards southern Rajasthan, then suddenly curve towards Gujarat by July 24, 2017. Models differ as to its track slightly but there is a chance of another deluge in Gujarat with some areas of Saurashtra/Kutch receiving upto a mammoth 25 inches of rain by Monday, July 24.

As the system moves west in coming days many areas in the following states may receive very heavy rainfall. That is above 5 inches. The states are ODISHA, CHATTISGARH, MADHYA PRADESH, SOUTHERN RAJASTHAN, NORTH GUJARAT, and possibly SAURASHTRA, KUTCH regions of GUJARAT.

Gujarat may receive the heaviest falls as the system is going to intensify when it arrives over the state on July 22. Also it is going to hover over Gujarat for the following two days after that. Add these factors and it adds upto big trouble for the state. Some areas in north Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch may receive 15-30 inches of rainfall in the period July 22-24, 2017.

SYSTEM TWO: Likely to form over Bangladesh/West Bengal on July 25/26, this powerful low may move through Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh onto Rajasthan by July end. Even this system according to US agency NOAA is going to bring a deluge to Gujarat.

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FLASH FORECAST FOR MUMBAI......HEAVY RAINS LIKELY 

It is going to rain heavily on the Indian west coast, especially in Konkan and the metropolis of Mumbai. The city is in for incessant heavy rains in the coming 7-8 days. Some estimates say the total rainfall in coming days could add up to 16-25 inches by July 25.

Torrential Rains In Mumbai Till June 17? Or From June 17?

JUNE 11, 2017, SUNDAY 

The deluge in Mumbai will start from Monday night. And it will go on for full 5 days with little breaks in between. It is time to ring alarm bells in the mega city. Forecast models predict relentless rains in the city. Flooding is inevitable.

It will start from Konkan and then spread to the city. Parts of south Gujarat, particularly Vapi, Valsad too will face heavy rains on June 14-15. 

We base this prediction of heavy rains in Mumbai mainly on what the European model ECMWF is saying. Other models are not so sure.

According to these models it will rain in Mumbai only for 2 days, today and tomorrow. The real deluge will start only from June 17, Saturday.

Meanwhile as we said earlier, the Bay of Bengal low pressure system is preparing to move into Bangladesh. Heavy rains possible in parts of the country and Indian North Eastern states. Then monsoon will arrive in north Bengal. But the system will lose steam and the rains will move no further. That is into Bihar, Jharkhand.

The monsoon on the Arabian Sea side will subside too around June 17-18, after hammering Mumbai relentlessly for 5 days. The net result of all these activities? Monsoon will move into Konkan, Mumbai, parts of South Gujarat, Rayalseema, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, sub Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Indian NE states.

After that monsoon will go into hibernation. When will it wake up again? Hard to say now as no signs of a revival are in sight.

Disappointingly for folks in Gujarat, Sindh, and Oman, the possibility of the expected cyclonic circulation off Saurashtra coast around June 14 is receding. In short, no low pressure system seems likely in Arabian Sea for now.