Rain Forecast Maps India, August 4-August 5, 2016

Rains To Continue In Oman

The remains of KEILA will bring more rains in southern Oman for the next 2-3 days.

Cyclone Keila has given a lot of rainfall to Oman in the last few days. Now Keila is no more. It is just a low pressure area now near Salalah in southern Oman. But it is going to give heavy rains in the area (Salalah, Raysut, Thamarit, Mudhay and Sadh) in the next 3 days till Sunday (Nov 6, 2011) The system will then move into Yemen and break-up completely and drift northwards bringing rains to UAE and Qatar.


The whole of Oman is expected to receive some precipitation for at least a week. Especially the coastal areas in the Arabian Sea. Then later another little wet spell around Nov 13, 2011 as the remnants of the low pressure area (which is likely to form on Nov 6, 2011 and move to the waters near the coasts of Oman, Pakistan and Gujarat) drift into Oman.

Nov 13, 2011. Remains of the Arabian Sea Low Pressure will drift into Oman and bring it more rains.

Muscat In For Three Days Of Rain Till Nov. 3, 2011

The present depression in the Arabian Sea hovering around the coast of Southern Oman is going to bring 3 days of rains to Muscat. Till the 3rd of November. The rest of Oman will get rains too but Muscat in for a special favour by the rain gods. Not heavy falls but rains nevertheless.


The depression is likely to intensify on Nov 4, 2011 but will never turn into a cyclone. It will peter out on Nov 5, 2011.

Prediction for Oman coast depression

 VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 01.11.2011  15.0N  56.7E     WEAK

 12UTC 01.11.2011  16.5N  56.1E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 02.11.2011  15.4N  54.9E     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 02.11.2011  16.1N  54.6E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 03.11.2011  15.4N  54.6E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 03.11.2011  15.4N  54.7E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 04.11.2011  15.3N  54.0E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 04.11.2011  15.4N  53.0E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 05.11.2011  15.4N  51.9E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 05.11.2011     BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

WHAT THE INDIAN MET DEPT. SAYS ABOUT THIS DEPRESSION?

ARB 02/2011/06 , Dated: 31.10. 2011
Time of issue: 2000 hours IST


Sub: Depression over westcentral Arabian Sea.


The depression over west central Arabian Sea moved northwestward and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 31st October 2011 over westcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 16.00N and longitude 57.50E, about 1900 km west-northwest of Mangalore (Karnataka), 550 km northeast of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 400 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards cross south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast close to south of Salalah around morning of 2nd November 2011


The depression is not expected to cause adverse weather along and off west of coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development

Rain Forecast Map

Oman is in for some rain. Muscat will get showers till Nov 3, 2011

There is a big storm which will take birth near the Indian coast near the state of Kerala on November 3, 2011. This storm is likely to be a monster and present forecasts say it will hit the Pakistan coast on November 9, 2011. Oman and the Indian state of Gujarat will be spared. But it is early days. Who knows? But more about that in another article....

UK MetOffice Says Arabian Sea Tropical Storm To Hit Saurashtra

This is the latest from the Indian Met department...

"A low pressure area has formed over eastcentral Arabian Sea and neighbourhood and associated upper aircyclonic circulation extends upto mid­tropospheric levels. The system is likely to  become more marked"

UK Met Office says the tropical storm has already formed and that it will slowly move into Saurashtra (Gujarat, India) in the next few days. The GFS forecast says the storm will hit southern Iran on June 12, 2011, Sunday night. Anyway, Here is the expected course and strength of the storm Keila.


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN


             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.06.2011


    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 18.3N  71.7E


  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY


  --------------     --------     --------        --------


 00UTC 06.06.2011  18.3N  71.7E     WEAK


 12UTC 06.06.2011  17.7N  71.8E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 00UTC 07.06.2011  17.5N  70.5E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 12UTC 07.06.2011  17.7N  70.5E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 08.06.2011  18.1N  70.0E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 12UTC 08.06.2011  18.4N  70.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 09.06.2011  18.9N  70.2E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE


 12UTC 09.06.2011  19.6N  70.2E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 10.06.2011  20.1N  70.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE


 12UTC 10.06.2011  20.5N  70.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 11.06.2011  21.0N  69.7E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


 12UTC 11.06.2011  21.5N  69.2E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 12.06.2011  22.1N  69.4E    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY






 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE


 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS


 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK


SOME OTHER FORECASTS FOR INDIA

• Mumbai will receive good rainfall today. That is Monday June 6, 2011. About 20 mm or may be more. Then it is a dry spell for a few days. Nest spell on June 9, Thursday.
• Goa will continue to receive rainfall over the next few days. So will coastal Karnataka.
• Surat and south Gujarat will receive heavy showers today (Monday, June 6, 2011) night. Saurashtra will remain mainly dry. It will get rainfall on Sunday. June 12, 2011.
• Vidarbha (Nagpur, Amravati) will receive good rainfall throughout Tuesday, June 7, 2011.

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