Cyclone Ashobaa Is Dissipating Fast

JTWC CONFIRMS DEMISE OF ASHOBAA AT SEA

In its 0900 GMT June 11, 2015 bulletin the JTWC confirms the complete dissipation at aea of Ashobaa.

There may be some rainfall in the coastal areas of Oman near Masirah in the next 24 hours.

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EXTRA UPDATE

DEATH OF A STORM

The 1300 GMT image today shows the disintegration of tropical cyclone Ashobaa. It is breaking up not weakening. It happened much sooner than was expected.

At present we are getting readings of winds of 55 km/ h. It is a depression now.  Not a tropical storm.

If it just dissipates even the rains in the coast of Oman will be much less than was forecast.

We have to wait for confirmation. Perhaps the ECMWF was right.

UPDATE

JTWC predicts Ashobaa will make landfall near Masirah late evening June 12, 2015, Friday night.

Expected winds are 60 km/h, gusts up to 80 km/h.

This information comes from the 0900 GMT bulletin today.

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Arabian Sea tropical cyclone Ashobaa is disintegrating rapidly. It will soon no longer be a tropical storm but a depression.

The JTWC in its latest bulletin issued at 0300 hours today, June 11, 2015, says the cyclone will be a deep depression when it makes landfall into Masirah, Oman.

Other forecast models suggest even quicker disintegration of the cyclone. They predict that at landfall Ashobaa will be a mere low pressure area.

The GFS foresees the low moving into central Oman bringing heat rains to the region.

Most of the effect of Ashobaa will be felt in the coastal region around Masirah. Heavy incessant rains and winds of 50 km/ h are expected in the area in the next 24 hours.

Some rains will extend to Sur. Muscat will remain unaffected.

The UAE will not see any " Ashobaa" effect.

The latest image taken at 0200  hours GMT today, June 11, 2015, shows that system has already weakened into a depression. And will weaken further rapidly.

Ashobaa has weakened into a depression. Image at 0200 hours GMT June 11, 2015

Latest JTWC track forecast issued at 0300 hours GMT June 11, 2015

Massive Tropical Cyclone (Ashobaa) To Hit Gujarat May 21, 2015?

LATEST UPDATE MAY 16, 2015

There is no possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal in the coming next few days. Please read our latest forecasts and do not go by earlier articles.
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 It is possible that a powerful cyclone (Ashobaa) may soon form in the Arabian Sea in North Indian Ocean, which will intensify and make landfall into Gujarat state of Western India on May 21, 2015.

At presently only the reliable American GFS forecast system predicts this storm but we have seen from experience that generally GFS forecasts are accurate. We shall closely monitor the situation and keep you updated with latest forecasts as soon as we come across them.

According to the GFS, the cyclone will start off as a low pressure area on May 17, near the Karnataka-Kerala coast and then move north and intensify into a tropical cyclone (Ashobaa). The storm is likely to hit Gujarat on May 21, 2015.

We will monitor future GFS forecasts and see if the cyclone formation is sustained. We shall also observe the European Forecast Model and see whether it supports the GFS prediction.

The situation being fluid, we have to wait and see if the cyclone forms and what its track turns out to be. Gujarat, Pakistan or Oman?

Keep in touch for latest updates.

FORECAST MA SHOWING ARABIAN SEA CYCLONE ASHOBAA HITTING GUJARAT ON MAY 21, 2015