Flooding Rains Expected In North Gujarat Till Monday Eve

UPDATE, JULY 22, 2:00 PM IST 

FORECAST FLASH.......

The low pressure system over Madhya Pradesh has begun to towards north Gujarat. It will reach by Saturday late night and will intensify. It will remain over north Gujarat-south Rajasthan border till Tuesday.

As the system is intensifying, THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VERY VIGOROUS OVER GUJARAT IN NEXT 48-72.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED IN ISOLATED AREAS OF THE STATE. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINS IN OTHER AREAS.

THE SITUATION WILL REMAIN GRAVE TILL MONDAY.........SEVERE FLOODING IS A REAL POSSIBILITY......

In next 24 hours, till Sunday evening, 10 inches of rainfall expected in Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar city, 12 inches in Himmatnagar, 8 inches in Palanpur.

Heaviest rain expected in Sabarkantha, Mahesana, Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad, Kheda, Surendranagar districts.

JULY 22, 2017, SATURDAY 

Even as the low pressure area moves over north Gujarat-South Rajasthan, very heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the state in the next 72 hours.

Though all the regions of the state will receive rains in lesser or more amounts, the deluge is expected in north Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra till July 24 evening.

The following districts will receive more than 10 inches of rainfall.....

SABARKANTHA, BANASKANTHA, PATAN, MAHESANA, ARAVALLI, GANDHINAGAR, AHMEDABAD, ANAND, PARTS OF SURENDRANAGAR.

The cyclonic circulation will move over to Rajasthan on Monday but it's southwest quadrant having all the rain clouds, so rainfall will continue in Gujarat till July 27 intermittently.

In Rajasthan, the southern parts will receive very heavy rains in the coming 96 hours. Rains will also spill over to parts of Sindh province of Pakistan by Monday. Dabhri, Thatta, Mirpurkhas, Hyderabad may receive heavy showers in the coming days.

FLOODING RAINS IN GUJARAT, MADHYA PRADESH IMMINENT: Bay Of Bengal System: What Do The Models Predict? (July 18-25)

LJULY 18, 2017, TUESDAY 

The Bay of Bengal low pressure area has intensified into a depression and is expected to cross the Odisha coast tonight. That is the night of July 18-19. Where will it go? Which states of India will receive the most rainfall as the system moves through the country?

Let us see what leading global numerical weather prediction models have to say about it. All agree that it is going to rain heavily in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. After that there is some difference of opinion. Some say Gujarat will get the drenching. Some say southern Rajasthan. One of them says it will rain the heaviest in Sindh, Pakistan.

After analysing data from reliable models we arrive at the following conclusions.....

ANOTHER DELUGE OF 15-25 INCHES PARTS OF GUJARAT, SAURASHTRA BY JULY 24.

MOST PARTS OF GUJARAT TO RECEIVE ATLEAST 4-5 INCHES.

SOME PARTS OF MADHYA PRADESH, BHOPAL, INDORE IN FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS IN NEXT 3-4 DAYS.

HEAVY RAINS IN MOST OF MADHYA PRADESH, SOUTHERN CHATTISGARH, SOUTHEAST RAJASTHAN. UDAIPUR AREA.

FLOODS LIKELY IN MADHYA PRADESH, GUJARAT IN COMING 5-6 DAYS.

Let us start the analysis.....The forecast maps show the expected accumulated rainfall in the period July 18-25, 2017.

The Australian forecast model gives a deluge in southeast Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. Besides, of course, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh before that.

The American GFS model gives most rains in central and western Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and northeast Gujarat. Almost identical to the Australian forecast.

The very reliable European model ECMWF gives entire Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch a deluge. 20-25 inches. Heavy rains in parts of Madhya Pradesh, southern Chattisgarh and Vidarbha in Maharashtra.

The German forecast model gives the most rainfall to Sindh, Pakistan. And also parts of Andhra, Telangana and Chattisgarh. Heavy rains also in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan. Gujarat gets little compared to the neighboring states. 

Gujarat In For A Deluge In Mid July?

JULY 6, 2017, THURSDAY

If forecast models are to be believed, the Indian state of Gujarat is in for flooding rainfall beginning mid July as two low pressure systems may hit it one after another by July 22.

The first system will be born in Bihar/Jharkhand on July 9 as an upper air cyclonic circulation. It will move onto eastern Uttar Pradesh, then northern Madhya Pradesh by July 12. It will have intensified into a big rainmaker by then. By July 14-15 it will be hovering over southeastern Rajasthan.

But it's southern quadrant will bring the maximum rainfall. This will arrive in Gujarat/Saurashtra/Kutch by July 15. So expect heavy to very heavy rains in the state beginning July 14. Before that parts of northwestern Madhya Pradesh and southeast Rajasthan will receive a deluge on July 12-14.
-------
इसे हिंदी में पढ़े
-------

Not only Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Sindh, the GFS model predicts the monsoon is going to enter a very active stage from July 12 and which will continue till the end of July. Many low pressure systems are likely with heavy rains in entire peninsular India. Especially Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chattisgarh, Maharashtra.

The system may move onto Sindh, Pakistan by July 15-16, bringing possibly very heavy rains in the province, including the capital Karachi.

THE SECOND SYSTEM will form over Bangladesh on July 15-16 and move quickly through West Bengal, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and hit Gujarat on July 20. This one will be even bigger than the first.

It may intensify into a depression by the time it reaches Gujarat. And that system too may flood southern Sindh and Karachi by July 21.

So strong is this depression going to be that it will enter Arabian Sea on July 21 and intensify further into a deep depression, may be even a cyclone. It may hit Balochistan or northern Oman after that but that remains to be seen.

The GFS envisages the low pressure system reaching Oman by July 22 bringing 2-4 inches of rain in the country, especially the northern parts (Muscat included).