Tropical Storm KYANT Brewing In Bay of Bengal, Heavy Rains In Coastal Myanmar, Bangladesh Likely

OCTOBER 22, 2016, SATURDAY 

The Bay of Bengal has belatedly thrown out a tropical storm, which will be named KYANT in a couple of days. It is a depression now some 750 kilometres from Yangon, Myanmar at present. In the coming few days the system 99B will move close to the coast of Myanmar.

On October 24, 2016, it will intensify into a tropical storm. Our estimate is at its peak it will reach a central minimum pressure of 981 millibars. Compared to the recent West Pacific monster Haima which had reached 922 millibars, this one will be a mere toddler.

But it is going to bring lots of rainfall to coastal Myanmar and then on October 28 to parts of Bangladesh and some Indian NE states.

KYANT will swing back into the sea away from the Myanmar coast on October 25 and perhaps hit the Chittagong area of Bangladesh on October 28, 2016.

But it's track may change in the coming days. Keep in touch.

It is also possible that this system may not strengthen enough to become a tropical cyclone and may remain on record according to the Indian Meteorological Department a mere deep depression and not be named "KYANT". At most it may turn out to be a weak cyclone, according to present forecasts.

Monster Typhoon Haima (Lawin) To Pass Northern Luzon Oct 20, Hong Kong Hit On Oct 22

OCTOBER 19, 2016, WEDNESDAY 

Monster category 5 typhoon Haima (Lawin) is at present (0430 GMT) about 430 kilometres ENE of Manila. Luzon is already feeling the arrival of the storm. The outer edges have already touched the country. The sustained wind speeds at present are 240+ km/h, gusts upto a staggering 310 km/h. Haima is a real monster. The bad news is Luzon is going to be hit by powerful 200 km/h winds. The typhoon will weaken a notch, to category 4, as it hits northern Philippines. A real nightmare for the country.

Haima will hit Hong Kong on October 22, 2016, as a category 2 storm.

OCTOBER 18, 2016, TUESDAY 

Category 4 typhoon Haima (Lawin) was about 1150 kilometres east of Manila at 0000 hours GMT today. Sustained winds of 245 km/h gusting upto 270 km/h. In the next 24 hours it will strengthen even more.

Fortunately by the time it passes extreme northern Luzon, Philippines on October 20, it will have weakened to a a category 2 storm. Even then Luzon may experience winds of 180 km/h.

After passing Philippines typhoon Haima will move into South China Sea and go onto to hit China at Hong Kong though the JTWC believes it will make landfall further north at Shantou. We believe it will hit Hong Kong on October 22.

Kerala, parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu in for wet spell till October 24

OCTOBER 12, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Even as a limpid monsoon withdraws rapidly from South Asia, Kerala is in for a continuous wet spell which will last till October 24, 2016. Extreme southern Karnataka and western Tamil Nadu too will receive good rains in the coming days.

This will be because of a a cluster of thunderstorms that have drifted down the Arabian Sea coast of India after drenching Gujarat in early part of this month. These clutch of cyclonic circulations will drench entire Kerala, some districts of Karnataka ( Mysore, Chamrajnagar, Hassan, Benguluru, Mandya, Kolar) western Tamil Nadu (Erode, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Nilgiris).

Meanwhile the monsoon is preparing to withdraw from eastern India, Bangladesh too. The present cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh is a last dying gasp.

Tamil Nadu is waiting for the onset of North East monsoon. It should occur in early November, though Sri Lanka will see continuous heavy rains as thunderstorm activity has naturally increased around the equator after the autumnal equinox.

One has to wait and see if there is a repeat of last year when the Arabian Sea hurled two powerful cyclones (Chapala, MEGH) towards Yemen. Seems unlikely as global weather conditions are unfavourable at present.

After Sarika (Karen), Luzon, Philippines May Be Affected by TropicalCyclone Haima (Lawin) Oct 20, 2016

OCTOBER 12, 2016, WEDNESDAY

Luzon, Philippines faces the prospect of being buffeted by two tropical storms in a span of a week. Future typhoon Sarika (Karen) will hit central part of the province on October 16. And the northern tip of the island may receive a thrashing by another typhoon, Haima ( Lawin) around October 20-21, 2016.

Invest 93W, that is future Karen, is already intensifying. It has turned into a tropical depression. It lies about 500 kilometres east of Samar. By Friday it will have turned into a tropical storm. When is crosses central Luzon on Sunday, thankfully, it will be throwing out winds of 70-80 km/h, with a central minimum pressure of 987mb.

Typhoon Sarika will rapidly intensify into powerful category 3/4 typhoon when it enters the South China Sea. Forecast models are predicting it may turn into a 944 hPa storm on October 18. Present forecasts indicate a hit on Zhenjiang, China on October 19, 2016.

Meanwhile another cyclone is brewing in West Pacific Ocean near Micronesia islands. It will intensify into typhoon Haima (to be called Lawin by PAGASA) as it moves west over the coming days. Present forecasts say this typhoon may graze the northern tip of Luzon on October 20-21 and the go on and affect Taiwan.

TYPHOON HAIMA, LAWIN MAY TURN INTO A BIG MONSTER STORM

Typhoon Sarika (Karen) Brewing In West Pacific, Philippines, Hainan,Vietnam Under Threat

UPDATE, OCTOBER 13, 2016, THURSDAY 

Bad news for China and Philippines. Both are going to be hit by two powerful typhoons within a space of one week. Sarika (Karen) will be a small storm when it crosses Philippines (Manila, Luzon) on October 16. Winds of 70-80 km/h. But lots of flooding rains. It will become a category 3 typhoon when it hits Hainan in China on October 18. Sarika will end up in Vietnam on October 19.

The real worry is typhoon Haima (Lawin). Forecast models say it may move through northern Luzon on October 20, 2016 as a monster category 4 hurricane with winds of 230-240 km/h. It will weaken a little and hit China at Hong Kong on October 22.

OCTOBER 11, 2016, TUESDAY

First time this West Pacific season 2016, Philippines is under threat from a direct hit from a tropical cyclone on October 15. Future typhoon Sarika (called Karen by PAGASA) is already brewing a few hundred kilometres off the coast of Philippines.

The system named Invest 93W by NOAA is a mere low pressure area but within 48 hours it will start intensifying into a tropical storm. It will be probably be christened on October 13-14 as it starts moving in a northwesterly direction towards Luzon. It will cross Luzon on October 15, 2016 just north of Manila as a tropical cyclone with winds of 80 km/h.

The real intensification of this storm will occur once it enters the South China Sea on October 16. Opinions are divided as to its track. Some forecast models think it will hit mainland China at Guangdong province at Zhenjiang on October 18.

We think typhoon Sarika will pass Hainan island on October 18 as a category 3/4 typhoon with winds of 200+ km/h and then go onto hit Vietnam on October 19, 2016.

Hainan and Vietnam are in for trouble in the coming days.

Present position of 93W. At 0000 hours GMT, October 11 it was 500 kilometres east of Tacloban.

Monster MATTHEW Edging Close To Florida

SEPTEMBER 5, 2016, WEDNESDAY 

As we had predicted a week ago hurricane Matthew has turned into a roaring category 4 howling monster which is thrashing its way through southern Cuba presently. Tomorrow Nassau will be hit by 200+ km/h winds. By Friday, according to official National Hurricane Center prediction it will slide by the Florida coast, it's eye just 60 kilometres from the coast.

All forecast models have been changing track prediction for Matthew, including the venerable NHC. Earlier it was said the storm would swing away into the Atlantic after hitting Cuba. One will not be surprised if this hurricane touches land in Florida. Georgia and the Carolinas are in a state of anticipation too. Highly unpredictable, this man Matthew.

The European ECMWF model predicts a hit on central Florida coast hit on October 7, 2016.

--------

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRENCHES GUJARAT

Meanwhile an unexpected cyclonic circulation is drenching Gujarat, especially Saurashtra since the last 2-3 days. The region will receive heavy showers till Sunday, October 9, 2016, after which the system will dissipate.

Category 4 Hurricane MATTHEW May Slam Into Miami, Florida October 7, 2016

SEPTEMBER 28, 2016, WEDNESDAY 

There is a strong likelihood that a category 4 (or 5) hurricane Matthew may hit Florida at Miami on October 7, 2016.

The future tropical cyclone has already formed off the coast of Guyana in the Atlantic Ocean. National Atmospheric and Oceanograhic Administration (NOAA) has started tracking the system. It calls it Invest 97L.

Matthew is going to be a slow moving system. Initially it will hug the South American coast and move along. Heavy rains are likely in the Caribbean islands of Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and The Grenadines, Grenada, Netherlands Antilles and Aruba in the next few days.

97L will remain a depression till it moves past Aruba on September 30-October 1. Once in the Caribbean Sea it will swing north and start intensifying into a tropical storm. Jamaica will be hit on October 4, 2016, Cuba on October 5, 2016 with winds of 140-160 km/h.

Then on October 6 after hurricane Matthew passes Cuba that it will rapidly intensify into a category 4/5 monster. It is possible that when it hits Florida at Miami wind speeds may well exceed 230 km/h with a central minimum pressure of 938 hPa. Gaston which is the strongest storm recorded in the Atlantic this season was a mere child in comparison.