Arabian Sea May Spin Off A Low/Depression By June 3, 2017

MAY 25, THURSDAY

Even as the Bay of Bengal prepares to hurl a tropical cyclone MORA at Bangladesh in the next 4-5 days, it is becoming evident that the Arabian Sea too is readying to give birth to a low pressure system/depression in the coming days in early June.

Even as the Bay of Bengal system gathers steam, it will drain off energy from the Arabian Sea. So the Arabian Sea is going to lay low in first gear till May 30. Once the Bay of Bengal storm hits Bangladesh and dissipates, the Arabian Sea branch of monsoon will accelerate.

On May 30-31 the monsoon will hit Kerala. After that it will quickly move into coastal Karnataka. Then on June 3 near the coast of Goa things will happen.

A low pressure area will develop accompanied by heavy rains. Monsoon will move into Goa.

Very heavy rains are expected in Konkan and Goa after the low forms. It will push monsoon into Mumbai.

Whether this fledgling storm system will develop into something bigger is uncertain at this moment. Where it will go is equally unclear presently. 

The GFS model expects the low pressure system to form on June 5. It says it may develop into a possible depression and head towards Balochistan/Oman.

Monsoon May Hit Kerala In Early June, Reach Mumbai Around June 10

MAY 13, 2017, SATURDAY

Looking at rainfall charts we can say that monsoon is slowly building up in the North Indian Ocean and is preparing to hit India in a fortnight. Though it enters India when it moves over the Andaman and Nicobar islands in the Bay of Bengal, officially the onset in Kerala is taken as the date of arrival into India.

Seeing the weather conditions we see a heavy buildup of rain clouds to occur in both the Bay of Bengal and southern Arabian Sea in the coming days. We can say an Andaman Nicobar onset will happen anytime after May 20.

For its arrival at Kerala we have to depend on the data by the CFS model. It says this will occur between June 3-June 9. After that the Arabian Sea is going to go into a storm binge hurling out low pressure areas/depression/cyclone possibly drenching Oman, UAE, Balochistan and coastal Sindh.

Monsoon will reach Mumbai between June 9-June 16. Within the next few days it will enters parts of Gujarat and Saurashtra. By June 24 it will have covered entire Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and southeastern Rajasthan.

Please note that the Indian Meteorological Department is the agency which officially declares the onset of monsoon in India. It takes into account a number of factors while doing so. We have given the onset dates based solely on the criterion of rainfall. So our estimate may differ from that of the IMD.

In the forecast maps, green, blue, maroon denotes heavy to very heavy rain. Brown color mean less than average rain.

Monsoon may enter Kerala and parts of Karnataka between June 3-June 9. See the maroon blotch in the Arabian Sea during that period. It means incessant, torrential stormy rainfall.

Around June 10 the rains will be knocking on Mumbai's door. By June 15 it will have covered Andhra, Odisha, southern Chattisgarh, Telangana, most of Maharashtra, Bengal and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand.

Latest figures by the Climate Prediction Center say chances of ENSO neutral will be slightly higher than that of El Niño developing during monsoon period in India.