Cyclone Mora May Hit Bangladesh By June 1, 2017

MAY 25, 2017, THURSDAY UPDATE

The low pressure system will begin to intensify into MORA by Saturday. It will be a quick moving storm. Will make landfall into Chittagong on Tuesday morning, May 30. Authorities have just 5 days to prepare for this challenge by nature.

Expected impact area of Bay of Bengal storm on Tuesday morning 

MAY 24, 2017, WEDNESDAY 

The upper air cyclonic circulation which has formed in the Bay of Bengal now lies west of Andaman Nicobar islands. In the next 3-4 days it will move in a north northeasterly direction intensifying into a well marked low pressure system.

It is on May 28 it will begin to intensify into a depression and by Monday into a tropical cyclone cyclone (MORA). It will be a swift moving storm. It will make landfall into the Chittagong region of Bangladesh by May 31, that is next Wednesday.

Mora will be a cyclone with a central minimum pressure of about 985 hPa. That is with sustained 10 minute winds of about 100 kmph.

Please keep reading updates on this site to know about the latest storm possibility.

At this stage Mora is just a strong possibility. Keep checking with your local weather office.

The upper air cyclonic circulation which is destined to become tropical cyclone MORA.

European Model, ECMWF Paints Gloomy India Monsoon 2017 Picture

APRIL 13, 2017, THURSDAY

The rainfall prediction for India this year's monsoon is poor. That is if the prediction by the European weather forecast agency's ECMWF model is to be believed. 

On the whole rainfall will be normal till September end in most parts of India, barring Kutch, parts of Saurashtra, North Gujarat, entire Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jammu Kashmir, Bengal and the North Eastern states. Rainfall will be deficient in these areas. On the whole it will bring down the monsoons to 90-95% of average. That is if there are no depression/cyclones in October/November which bring prodigious amounts of water and push up the percentage and reduce the gloomy scenario.

The ECMWF says that there will be good rains on the Indian west coast barring Gujarat in July and August. But the rains will dry up in August, September in the whole country. I guess this will be because of the bad man El Niño kicking in then.

There is bad news for Pakistan and Bangladesh too. It will be below normal monsoon in these two countries.

This prediction is based on analysis of climate data available till March 1, 2017 by the premier forecast agency. It would be interesting to see if there are changes in subsequent long range forecasts.