In India, the Indian Meteorological Department is not the only government agency which gives monsoon forecasts. It is CMMACS (CSIR Centre For Mathematical Modelling And Simulation), now called CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute.
This agency has predicted that the monsoons will hit hit Kerala on May 25, 2015 (Quite near our prediction of May 23). The initial wave will be weak followed by a stronger wave on June 11, 2015.
Its forecasts are
Probabilities for excess, normal and deficit rainfall over different regions and months
June-August, 2015
Region Probability(%)
Excess Normal Drought
All India 20 50 30
North-India 10 20 70
South India 30 60 10
Central India 20 70 10
North-east India 20 70 10
North-west India 10 70 20
So according to it all India there is 50% chance of a normal monsoon, 20% probability of a excess rainfall and only 30% chance of a drought in 2015. It also agrees with what we have said in an article today, that northern India will receive scanty rainfall this monsoon.
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