JUNE 1, 2016
The June 1, that is the latest monsoon forecast by the Canadian Meteorological Centre's CANSIPS climate model for India, South Asia and Middle East in 2106 is out.
The monthly forecasts for 2016 is given in the maps below. Green color denotes above average rainfall. Orange equals below average. White colour in the map means normal rains.
It has good news for western and southern India. Rajasthan, Gujarat and coastal Maharashtra are in for bountiful rainfall with average or above average precipitation in June-September. Rains in Karnataka will be good except for a lean patch in June.
The bad news is for central and eastern states of India. Odisha will be worst hit with deficient rains in all the monsoon months. All the eastern states, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh can expect abysmal rains. July and September will be especially poor.
Turning to Pakistan, it will receive very good rains in all the monsoon months.
Surprisingly, Middle East countries generally considered dry will remain wet in the coming months. Oman, UAE and Saudi Arabia will receive much above the average precipitation for the months of July, August and September in 2016.
Bangladesh except for a surfeit in July will have below average rains this year. Myanmar will see very dry July and September.
Forecast for June: Very dry Odisha and Konkan.
July forecast: Handsome rains in Gujarat and four southern states
August forecast: Gujarat and Andhra score high rain scores
Are we looking at super monsoon in India this year? also how are the rains going to be in the drought effected region of marathwada and North India especially Delhi, Haryana & Punjab ?
ReplyDeleteThe CANSIPS forecast says Delhi, Punjab, Haryana will have normal rainfall. Marathwada is to have deficient rains.
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ReplyDeletewhat about Karachi ( Pakistan ) . Karachi is not receive significant since last 3 to 4 years . Is this year rain is above avg. Kindly tell us month wise
ReplyDeletePakistan, Karachi included, will get good rainfall in all the Monsoon 2016 months. We have already mentioned this in the article.
ReplyDeleteArabian sea has no low pressure forecast now according to latest gfs forecast.whats your view Xwf?
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ReplyDeleteThe chances of an Arabian Sea depression/cyclone is receding. A rain system may develop over Andhra Pradesh in the coming days.
ReplyDeleteUAE rains forecast is really a pleasant surprise. Let us see whether this will happen.
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