XWF Forecast: Canadian Climate Model CANSIPS Predicts Good 2016 Indian Monsoon

April 25, 2016

After the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) and NOAA, the Canadian Climate Model too predicts a bumper South West Monsoon in 2016.

The CANSIPS (Canadian Seasonal and Inter-annual Prediction System) developed by the Canadian met says most parts of India will receive above average rainfall June's-September this year. In fact it foresees good November precipitation too.

Below are maps for the predicted rainfall for India and South Asia for June-September 2016. The green color denotes above average rainfall. The orange color represents below average precipitation.

Western , central, northern and southern India will receive good bountiful rains. Only the eastern states of Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal and Indian North East is in for scanty rains. This forecast agrees more or less with the NOAA's NMME forecast.

Pakistan and Oman are in for a wet period July-September. Bangladesh and Myanmar will remain relatively dry this monsoon.

Please note that we had earlier predicted that Indian monsoon 2016 would be very wet as El Niño was going to become neutral by June and by September La Niña would be on the ascendancy.

Latest CANSIPS (May 1, 2016) Forecast

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction

JUNE 2016- Good rains in India's east and western states

JULY 2016 - Heaviest rains in Saurashtra and northern Tamil Nadu. Scanty in eastern states.

AUGUST 2016 - Deluge in Gujarat, coastal Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Deficient in Odisha, Chattisgarh and eastern Madhya Pradesh.

SEPTEMBER 2016 - Deluge again in Saurashtra and coastal Maharashtra. A cyclone perhaps? Drought in Odisha.
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XWF Prediction: Bumper Indian Monsoon 2016 Rains Predicts US ClimateForecast Agency

April 19, 2016

South Asia and India are in for record monsoon rains in 2016 if the United States NOAA's ( National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency) NMME forecast model is to be believed.

Roughly put it predicts rains in excess of 10% above normal. Western India will receive the most rains, though the trend will be seen all over the country, except the states of Odisha and West Bengal.

And surprisingly the deluge is expected to continue till November.

Parts of western India including Gujarat will receive rains about 2-4 inches above normal.

Given below are forecast maps for June-November by the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble). It shows the anomalies , that is excess or deficient rains than the average. The blue denotes an excess of more than 100 mm. The green denotes excess from 1-100 mm. The orange colour denotes deficient rainfall. Darker orange means scantier rains.

According to this forecasts even Pakistan and Oman will get above average precipitation in the coming months.

Another surprise from this prediction is that the usually wet Myanmar (Burma) will receive deficient rains this year.

Canadian Forecast Monsoon 2016

El Niño Waning, Indian Monsoon Will Be Good

NMME Monsoon May 2016 Prediction


Indian monsoon June 2016 rainfall prediction
June 2016: Good rains in the four southern states, Bihar and Saurashtra 

July 2016 Indian monsoon rainfall forecast
July 2016: Rainfall all over India except Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha.

August 2016: Very good rains in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Himachal.

Indian monsoon September 2016 rain forecast
September 2016: Deluge in Saurashtra, Uttarakhand and Konkan.

October 2016 Indian monsoon  precipitation forecast
October 2016: Good rains in Odisha, Malabar and coastal Karnataka.

November 2016 Indian monsoon rain prediction
November 2016: Surprisingly rains in November all over India except western Rajasthan and Kutch 
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Cyclone FANTALA April 2016: Latest Updates



FINAL UPDATE:APRIL 21, 2016

Within 24 hours the weakening tropical cyclone will again move course roughly westward and pass the northern tip of Madagascar on April 24/25. There is little chance of it threatening Mauritius in any way.
The infrared image of the storm was taken at 0200 hours GMT today.



UPDATE: APRIL 20, 2016

Cyclone Fantala is steadily weakening and will continue to do so. It is now moving ESE. After a few days it will drift back in a WNW direction, passing the northern tip of Madagascar on April 25. It may then fizzle out mid sea or bring rainfall to the Tanzania-Mozambique border coast later. The only land area it may affect is Saint Brandon, the little isle north of Mauritius.

Interestingly forecast models are hinting at a new tropical storm in the southern Indian Ocean around April 25. This possibility is supported by NOAA in its fortnightly outlook (See map below)



UPDATE: APRIL 19, 2016

After becoming the strongest tropical cyclone recorded in the Indian Ocean (North and Southern) on April 18 with one minute sustained winds of 275 km/h, FANTALA is now weakening and moving in a southeasterly direction.

It will move so till April 23 after which it will again change direction and move west. It will hit the northern tip of Madagascar on April 25/26 as a tropical storm.

Going by present forecasts, the threat to Mauritius and Rodrigues seems to be receding.

Satellite image cyclone Fantala April 19 0330 GMT
Fantala is weakening as the latest satellite image ( April 19, 0300 hours GMT) shows

Latest track forecast cyclone Fantala April 19
Latest track forecast for Fantala


UPDATE: APRIL 17, 2016

Fantala is presently a furious storm, with 240 km/h winds according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It lies about 1100 kilometres NW of Mauritius.

Reliable forecast models now agree that within 24-48 hours the cyclone will swing southeasterly. It may pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues on April 23, 2016. A direct hit on Rodrigues is not ruled out.

The cyclone is expected to weaken considerably in the coming days after April 19.

Tropical cyclone Fantala satellite image 0730 GMT April 17
Satellite image 0730 hours GMT, April 17, 2016

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UPDATE APRIL 16, 2016. 

Even reliable forecast models are giving erratic predictions at every update. There is a possibility that cyclone Fantala might hover around about 500 kilometres NW of Mauritius for a week then weaken and make landfall into northeastern Madagascar.

But we still believe that the storm will swing southeasterly on April 19 and hit Rodrigues island on 22-23rd.

Meanwhile Fantala has intensified into a category 4 hurricane with winds that the JTWC expects to touch a whopping 130 knots (240 km/h). It presently lies about 800 kilometres north of Mauritius.

TRACK FORECAST ISSUED TODAY 

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UPDATE APRIL 15, 2016 - There is little change in the forecast scenario since yesterday. Fantala will continue west till April 18 as a category 3 hurricane and then swing down and move southeasterly henceforth. A direct hit on Rodrigues is possible on April 22, 2016. But by then the cyclone will have weakened considerably to a category 1 or maybe just a tropical storm.


MPE IMAGE OF CYCLONE FANTALA APRIL 15, 2016. 0600 HOURS GMT 

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UPDATE APRIL 14, 2016 - Fantala is well on its way in turning into a category 4 monster hurricane soon as it moves west. Track forecasts indicate a abrupt change in direction on April 17-18. It will weaken slightly and move southeasterly. It is to be seen if it moves betwixt Mauritius and Rodrigues or hits Rodrigues directly. This will happen on April 21.



Cyclone Fantala infrared image April 14 southern Indian ocean
INFRARED IMAGE APRIL 14, 2016 TROPICAL CYCLONE FANTALA 0200 GMT 

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Update April 13, 2016 - All forecast models agree on Fantala's future for the next 4 days. It will move westerly in the Southern Indian Ocean, intensifying all the time and reach the northernmost tip of Madagascar. The European model ECMWF, envisages it attaining a central pressure of 945 Mb. A category 5 hurricane.

Then from April 17-18 it will abruptly change direction and move southeasterly and move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island on April 21. It will have weakened quite a bit by then. This part of the forecast is prone to change. A little shift and a direct hit on either Mauritius or Rodrigues will happen


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Update: April 12, 2016 - Cyclone Fantala has formed. It lies about 650 kilometres south of Diego Garcia and is moving west. It will continue doing so for the next 3-4 days and then will abruptly change direction and move south or south-easterly. Present forecasts say it will hit Rodrigues Island on April 20 but Mauritius cannot be deemed safe as the forecast track has been changing all the time.

Satellite image cyclone Fantala April 12, 2016

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Update: April 11, 2016 - The cyclone is presently a low pressure area south of Diego Garcia. It is strengthening all the time. Our guess is it will become a tropical cyclone by April 14. As to its track, the picture is nebulous. But forecast models at present are predicting that it will pass by Mauritius/Rodrigues Island around April 20.
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We have already warned on our Twitter page about a possible tropical cyclone brewing in the southern Indian Ocean in the coming days. We had also said the cyclone Fantala was unlikely to affect Mauritius, La Reunion islands.

But recent forecasts by reliable computer forecast models hint at the possibility of Fantala turning into a massive 946 Mb storm which will hover near the northeastern coast of Madagascar by April 17, 2016.

History says any tropical cyclone in that area tends to move south or southeasterly. Hence the possibility of Fantala hitting Mauritius or La Reunion is quite strong. The GFS model envisages a massive monster hitting the isle nation.

It is also possible that the storm may move through the northern tip of Madagascar and crash into Mozambique or southern coastal Tanzania. The ECMWF model supports this scenario.

The forecast image shows the cyclone's position on April 17.

Cyclone Fantala Southern Indian Ocean Mauritius
Latest satellite images of cyclone Fantala 
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XWF Prediction: 2016 Indian Monsoon Will Be Good, El Niño Waning

April 1, 2016

After the erratic rains in 2015 there is good news for India this year. The monsoons are expected to be good. The dreaded El Niño is waning steadily and by June it will become neutral.

And we all know a weak El Niño means bountiful rains in the south west monsoons. It had been positive last year and brought poor precipitation in the Indian sub-continent.

The United States global weather agency, Climate Prediction Center, too predicts above average rainfall in India from June to September. (See rain forecast maps).

Interestingly the CPC forecasts rains in many parts of the country even in May. Pre-monsoon activity will be strong in that month.

Talking of precipitation prospects for the next 10 days, the heaviest falls will occur in Indian north-eastern states, Sri Lanka and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Kashmir.

A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) this year may adversely affect the South West Monsoon in 2016. (Of course the neutral or negative El Niño will offset this IOD factor this year hence both National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Indian Meteorological Department are forecasting a good monsoon in 2016).

Below are rainfall forecast maps for South Asia starting May through September 2016. The green and blue colours denote above average rain. The yellow and brown show deficient precipitation. The prediction is based on NOAA's Climate Forecast Model (CFS).

Canadian Monsoon 2016 Forecast 

NOAA NMME Monsoon 2016 Forecast

May 2016 monsoon rain forecast May India map
MAY: Heavy rains in parts of Indian north east. Surprisingly rains through out India barring central and eastern parts.

Indian monsoon prediction map June 2016
JUNE: Heaviest precipitation in Madhya Pradesh and Malabar coast.

Indian monsoon 2016, July prediction
JULY: Drenching in central and parts of western India.

Rain forecast August 2016 Indian monsoon
AUGUST: Above average rains in many parts. Deficient in Andhra.

Rain forecast September 2016 India monsoon
SEPTEMBER: Above average rains in entire India except western Rajasthan.




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