Major monsoon revival on June 23-24, 2016

India infrared satellite image June 18

JUNE 18, 2016

A major rejuvenation of the monsoon in India will occur only on June 23-24. That is when it will push into Mumbai properly. Though heavy showers will occur in Konkan in the next 48 hours, they will not reach Mumbai before June 24.

Showers are likely in south Gujarat and Saurashtra on June 20 but heavy rains will elude the state till the end of the month.

The Bay of Bengal stream of the monsoon is bringing heavy rains to Andhra Pradesh presently. It will push into Jharkhand, Bihar, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra in the next 3-4 days.

We will have to wait a week for the Arabian Sea monsoon to revive. The Bay of Bengal stream can do little on its own without a little support from the former.

Monsoon has been overall weak in June. One waits for NOAA's forecast of heavy rains July-October to fructify.

The good news is that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in its latest assessment foresees very heavy rainfall on Indian west coast (mainly northern coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan) and in Chattisgarh, eastern Madhya Pradesh during the June 22-28 period. It also says Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO might strengthen over the Indian Ocean soon.
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9 comments:

murali said...

Forecast for rains in gulf countries like UAE and Oman still holds good?

Unknown said...

It was a GFS forecast. It seems to have changed its mind. Check GFS forecast at this link http://xtremeweatherforecast.blogspot.ca/2014/11/south-asia-and-middle-east-weather.html

murali said...

Is it expected in July or August??

Unknown said...

Do you think it will rain that heavily in mumbai in coming days and it will be able to reach its monthly rainfall average for june which us around 523mm?will north konkan get torrential rains in last 9 days of june or it wouls be deficient?

Unknown said...

Kindly give forecast for sindh. Is there any rain possibility in june

Unknown said...

The NMME forecast for July, August for Oman, UAE stands. We shall give its July update around July 10.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

Heavy rains are expected in coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan from June 28. Will this rain system extends to Mumbai is doubtful.

Unknown said...

In June, Sindh may receive some light showers as a spill off from rainfall activity in adjoining Kutch Saurashtra. But rains there too are light at present. One can hope for a major rain system only in July.

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