La Niña to kick in from July, monsoon may shed lethargy

JUNE 22, 2016

After all the hullabaloo about a bumper 2016 monsoon, June has been a disappointment. Speaking mildly. Most Mumbaikars learnt that monsoon had arrived in the city from IMD news reports in the media. So low key has been the premiere this year.

The story is the same throughout India. No flooding incessant rains. No waterlogged metros. Nothing. It leaves a sinking feeling in the heart. 

But despair not........

All right. All right. We have said this a couple of times before. But so constipated has been the monsoon that the expected revival either fizzles out or does not occur at all.

Perhaps El Niño's ghost still lurks around.

But by end June things will look up. La Niña will arrive in style and unleash the rain gods from July 1, 2016. The Bay of Bengal will spawn a low pressure area off the Andhra Pradesh coast on June 30. Even the Arabian Sea will join the party with heavy precipitation in coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan by then. It remains to be seen if the rain system reaches Mumbai or goes off tangentially into the sea.

Our present prediction is from July 1, monsoon will start using its heavy artillery.

JUNE 23 UPDATE

Later data from forecast models support the rejuvenation of the monsoons by June end. In fact it might happen earlier. On June 27, the Arabian Sea will wake from its slumber and spawn a low pressure area in the northern part. It will not intensify into a depression or cyclone but it will giving a boost to rainfall/thunderstorm activity in the subcontinent.

Flooding rains from June 28 in coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan and perhaps even Mumbai.

Things are going to really rock by June end.