Bay of Bengal Storm Updates
MAY 16, 2016: 0400 GMT
MAY 16, 2016: 0400 GMT
LOW PRESSURE AREA 91B HAS LEFT SRI LANKA
Rains have started in southern Tamil Nadu as the Bay of Bengal low pressure approaches the state. It will soon turn into a depression. Though by American standards it is already a depression. NOAA takes sustained one minute wind speed where as the Indian Meteorological Department takes a ten minutes average.
Heavy rains are expected in Tamil Nadu in the next 24 hours which will spread to coastal Andhra by Wednesday. Telangana may receive some showers.
Forecast models are divided whether the the system will intensify into a tropical cyclone or not. It might on May 18-19 off the Andhra coast.
Otherwise it may at best upgrade into a deep depression. It will hit the Myanmar-Bangladesh coast on May 20.
MAY 15, 2016: 1430 GMT
POSITION OF 91B AT 1230 GMT
Two hours back low pressure area 91B made landfall into Sri Lanka. Wind speeds are 55 km/h. By tomorrow evening local time it will enter Tamil Nadu from near Kanyakumari.
MAY 15, 2016, 1030 GMT
RAINS MOVING INTO TAMIL NADU
Latest MPE satellite image taken half an hour ago shows the heavy rains owing to 91B are moving from Sri Lanka into Tamil Nadu.
MAY 15, 2016, 0430 GMT
DEPRESSION/TROPICAL STORM IN ARABIAN SEA BY MAY 25
Forecast models are hinting at the formation of a depression/tropical storm in the Arabian Sea in the next 10 days. That is around May 25, 2016. The suspect area is the coast of Karnataka. It may bring rains to western India, Pakistan or Oman.
Premature to predict anything now but the GFS model thinks the system will move to Oman by May 31, 2016.
ROANU IMMINENT
ROANU IMMINENT
MAY 15, 2016, 0230 GMT
HEAVY RAIN IN SRI LANKA, TAMIL NADU STARTED
Under the influence of the Bay of Bengal low pressure area heavy rains have stated in Sri Lanka. These rains will move into Tamil Nadu tomorrow.
It will soon turn into a depression.
The MPE satellite image taken at 0200 GMT shows northern Karnataka also receiving heavy showers.
Where will the depression go finally? To Myanmar. By May 20 it will have raced through the Bay of Bengal and reached Myanmar. Though not before giving heavy rains to Tamil Nadu and southern Andhr till May 18. By the time it reaches Myanmar it might intensify into a deep depression/tropical cyclone.
MAY 14, 2016, 1200 GMT
This forecast map of May 24 shows the easterly upper air jet stream has been pushed over Tibet. Meanwhile the monsoon winds are pushing in and up into South Asia.
The Bay of Bengal low moves across Telangana and Vidarbha.
FROM OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...
"This low called 91B by NOAA has taken all forecast models on a wild goose chase.
No one was sure where it would go and how much it would intensify.
Though it is not 100% certain where it will end up ultimately, there are hints that it will stick to the BOB. (Though there is a 10% chance it might move into the Arabian Sea via Karnataka).
Though it will be a mere depression in Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu, till May 18, it might turn real nasty around May 21 and give the Indian east coast, Bangladesh and Myanmar some frightening nightmares."
MAY 14, 2016: 0430 GMT
DEPRESSION TO HIT TAMIL NADU ON MONDAY
The low pressure area hovering around southeast of the Sri Lanka coast will intensify into a depression by Sunday, May 15 and pass through Sri Lanka. On Monday it will enter Tamil Nadu.
It is expected to move into Karnataka after that. Chances are by May 19 it might enter the Arabian Sea and intensify further into a tropical cyclone.
Heavy rainfall is expected in southern Tamil Nadu from Monday onwards. Which will then start in Karnataka.
There is a second possibility. The depression moves from Tamil Nadu north into Andhra Pradesh. If that happens rains will occur in TN, AP. Karnataka will be left dry. On May 20, the depression might enter into the Bay of Bengal and turn into an awful tropical cyclone.
Suspected targets are Bangladesh or Myanmar. But Odisha and West Bengal are not ruled out either.
There is real cyclone threat to India's east coast, Bangladesh and Myanmar after May 20, 2016.
The situation is volatile and computer models are finding it difficult to pin down a track for this unpredictable growing system.
MAY 13, 2016: 1215 GMT
BAY OF BENGAL SYSTEM MAY REMAIN JUST A LOW
Latest forecasts suggest the expected Tamil Nadu system on May 17 may not intensify into a deep depression or cyclone. Heavy rains are expected in the state however.
Meanwhile storm activity will increase in the Arabian Sea in the coming week which will push up rains up to Mumbai by the end of the month. Rain giving depressions are not ruled out in the Arabian Sea in the coming days.
MAY 13, 2016: 1130 GMT
GALLOPING MONSOON THIS YEAR?
One look at the rainfall map (Total precipitation from now to May 29, 2016) given below and we find the monsoon this year is going to race in the next 15 days with rains reaching Gujarat by the end of the month.
This will be possible partly because of the low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal. This is going to bring good rains on the Indian east coast. On top of that low pressure systems are going to develop in the Arabian Sea in a week. This will push rains up india's west coast.
The yellow/orange colors in the map denote heaviest rain. Light green means light rainfall.
Total rainfall till May 29, 2016. The rains have touched Gujarat. Call it monsoon or pre-monsoon rains.
MAY 13
TWO POSSIBLE ROUTES BOB STORM MAY FOLLOW
FLASH NEWS....THE ECMWF, THE EUROPEAN FORECAST MODEL IN ITS LATEST DATA SAYS THAT ONLY A LOW PRESSURE/DEPRESSION TO AFFECT TAMIL NADU, NOT A CYCLONE. MOREOVER, THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO KARNATAKA NOT ANDHRA AS WIDELY EXPECTED....
The system will bring heavy rains to Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra by May 21-22, besides of course Tamil Nadu.
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MAY 13, 2016
RAINS EXPECTED IN WESTERN INDIA BY MAY END
For those in western India who are eagerly waiting for rains to stave off the present dry heat, there is good news.
Though nothing dramatic as the presently brewing Bay of Bengal storm is expected, low pressure areas will bring good rains to northern Karnataka, Maharashtra and even parts of Gujarat.
This will happen because a rain bearing low will drift to the Goa coast around May 22, 2016. Then some rain clouds will move north and bring rains to Mumbai around May 26 and even parts of Gujarat.
Meanwhile a low pressure area from the Bay of Bengal will move westwards into northern Karnataka and Vidarbha around May 28, 2016.
The Arabian Sea low pressure system moves into northern Karnataka on May 23.
The system drifts north onto Mumbai and Gujarat.
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MAY 13, 2016
BAY OF BENGAL DEEP DEPRESSION/TROPICAL STORM ROANU TO HIT TAMIL NADU
The time of impact is May 17, 2016, Tuesday. It is uncertain whether the system will be given a name or it will remain a deep depression.
The present low pressure area south of Sri Lanka, named 91B, by NOAA, will begin to intensify and move north on Sunday.
It is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm (ROANU) and hit the Tamil coast south of Chennai on May 17.
The entire state of Tamil Nadu will receive flooding rains accompanied by winds of 60-70 km/h.
The storm will then swing towards coastal Andhra.
MAY 12, 2016
FLASH NEWS....BAY OF BENGAL LOW HAS ALREADY FORMED
Things are happening fast. The low pressure area that was expected to form later has already formed.
NOAA calls it Invest 91B.
In a few days it will effect coastal Tamil Nadu.
Keep in touch for updates
MAY 12, 2016
BAY OF BENGAL LOW TO BE FORMED MAY 15, 2016
All eyes are on the area of the sea south of Sri Lanka. That is where a low pressure area will be born from the existing clusters of thunderstorms.
This will happen on May 14-15.
This system will intensify into a depression/tropical cyclone after that.
NOAA is already tracking the system. It is called "Invest 91B".
Forecast models disagree on the track of the expected system.
Either it will traverse Sri Lanka and cross over into Tamil Nadu. Or it will move along the coast of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu north into the Bay of Bengal.
MAY 12, 2016
DEEP DEPRESSION/WEAK CYCLONE MAY HIT SOUTHERN TAMIL NADU MAY 17, 2016
Extreme Weather Warning
There is an enhanced possibility that the depression that will cross over from Sri Lanka into India may intensify into a deep depression or even a weak tropical cyclone.
The target area is southern districts of Tamil Nadu. Especially Virudhunagar, Thoothukudi and Ramnathapuram districts.
Expected time of impact is May 17, 2016. Tuesday
Torrential rains with winds of 60-70 km/h are expected.
The system will cross over to Karnataka on May 18-19. Very heavy rains are expected in northern Kerala and the entire state of Karnataka. The rains will be accompanied with winds of 50-60 km/h, with gusts upto 80 km/h.
MAY 12, 2016
PERHAPS NO CYCLONE, BUT DEPRESSION TO DRENCH SOUTH INDIA
Latest forecasts now are lukewarm on the prospects of a tropical cyclone in Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal. But a depression will form near the southern Sri Lankan coast on May 16, 2016. It is likely to move through Sri Lanka and the southern states of India in the next 4-5 days after that.
Hence very heavy rains are probable in Tamil Nadu, eastern Karnataka, Andhra and Telangana till May 20.
An alternate scenario is the depression moves along the eastern coast of Sri Lanka and then coastal Tamil Nadu. In that case Chennai and coastal areas of the state are in for a drenching.
The situation is very volatile and forecast models are giving erratic outputs.
We shall continue giving you the latest updates. Nothing is ruled out at this stage. Things will get clearer after the depression forms around May 15-16 near Sri Lanka.
MAY 11, 2016
BIG TROPICAL CYCLONE "ROANU" COMING MAY 20, 2016, OFF KARNATAKA
We have already warned of the likelihood of a Bay of Bengal deep depression bringing heavy rains to first Sri Lanka, then southern India.
Reliable forecast models are hinting that this depression after drenching Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka will enter the Arabian Sea on May 20, 2016, and intensify into tropical cyclone ROANU.
These models further say this storm will intensify rapidly after sea and move northward along the Goa coast. Possibly sustained winds of 200 km/h.
The cyclone is expected to have a central minimum pressure of 946 hPa on May 21. Astounding.
The cyclone is expected to have a central minimum pressure of 946 hPa on May 21. Astounding.
3 comments:
Where will it hit?Mumbai?
Will it affect konkan?
Rains are likely in Konkan by May end. Please read our latest forecasts.
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