The Indian Meteorological Department has expressed fears of El Nino causing a weak 2015 monsoon. But this is to be taken with a pinch of salt. The IMD's predictions in the past have often been wide off the mark.
We reproduce below what the Wall Street Journal has to say about this.
India’s weather department this week unveiled its annual early forecast of how much rain the monsoon will likely dump on the Subcontinent this year. A precise prediction is crucial for the hundreds of millions of farmers who depend on the annual rains but history shows that these early forecasts are usually wrong.
Last year the India Meteorological Department predicted a slightly weak monsoon, but India got a drought. The year before it forecast below-average rains, and the subcontinent got well above average. In 2009 when India had its worst drought in decades, the IMD had predicted a normal monsoon.
The government’s weather watchers use the average rainfall for the last 50 years to define what is normal. If the rainfall for the June-through-September rainy season falls between 96% and 104% of the average, then that is a normal or good monsoon.
Rainfall of less than 90% is considered a drought, rainfall of more than 110% of the average is considered an excess.
The department has been monitoring the moody monsoon for more than a century and over the years has had to repeatedly tweak its forecasting model and acquire new technology to better predict the rains. But its earliest predictions still leave a lot to be desired.
While the IMD allows for a wide margin of error of 5% above or below its April predictions, it still rarely gets it right. Even within that 10 percentage point margin of error, its early prediction has been right in only six of the last 21 years.
Monsoons To Hit South Asia Early This Year (2015)
Yesterday we had predicted a powerful cyclone hitting western India (Gujarat) in the first week of June 2015, based on forecast based on NOAA's CFS (Climate Forecast Model).
Studying the model forecast further we noticed that the monsoons are likely to touch India much earlier than normal. The normal date of onset of monsoons in Kerala is June 1.
Much to our astonishment we discovered that the CFS Model predicts the monsoon system entering the Arabian Sea about 15 days earlier around May 15, 2015. Please see the CFS precipitation maps below. Each map spans the total rainfall in a 5 days period.
Please note that the CFS forecasts are not accurate.
Studying the model forecast further we noticed that the monsoons are likely to touch India much earlier than normal. The normal date of onset of monsoons in Kerala is June 1.
Much to our astonishment we discovered that the CFS Model predicts the monsoon system entering the Arabian Sea about 15 days earlier around May 15, 2015. Please see the CFS precipitation maps below. Each map spans the total rainfall in a 5 days period.
Please note that the CFS forecasts are not accurate.
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| MAY 7- MAY 11: THE MONSOONS ARE STRENGTHENING IN SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL |
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| MAY 12- MAY 16: HEAVY MONSOON RAINS NEAR SOUTH SRI LANKA. |
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| MAY 17- MAY 21: THE RAINS HAVE SPREAD TO SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND MALDIVES. |
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| MAY 22- MAY 26: THE MONSOONS MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. RAINS IN KERALA. THE BAY OF BENGAL BRANCH OF THE MONSOONS MOVE INTO INDIAN NORTH EAST, BANGLADESH AND NORTH BENGAL. |
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| MAY 27- MAY 31: THE MONSOONS SPREAD OUT INTO SOUTHERN ARABIAN SEA. A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE KERALA COAST. |
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| JUNE 1- JUNE 6: THE RAIN SYSTEM SPREADS TOWARDS OMAN. THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR KERALA PERSISTS. |
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| JUNE 6- JUNE 10: HEAVY RAINS IN KERALA. THE MONSOONS MOVE NORTH THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO A CYCLONE AND HEADS TOWARDS GUJARAT. |
CFS (Climate Forecast System) Predicts An Arabian Sea Cyclone in June 2015
CFS (Climate Forecast System) has been developed to give long range forecasts for two months and more by the US NOAA.
Perusing the forecast data by the CFS Model one sees a powerful cyclone developing in southern Arabian Sea in the first week of June 2015. The cyclone is expected to move towards the coast of Oman and move along it some few hundred kilometers away
By June 10, 2015, the cyclone will curve north-eastward and hit the coast of Saurashtra between Porbandar and Dwarka and move north into western Kachch and then into Pakistan's Sindh Province
Let us make one thing very clear. The CFS Model is not very reliable. But it does give useful indications. In fact even the reliable GFS and ECMWF forecasts beyond ten days should be taken with a large pinch of salt.
But the cyclone season in the north Indian Ocean is about to begin. The sea temperatures are already over the cut-off point of 26.5 degrees C. The temperature required to fuel a tropical cyclone.
In 2014, the North Indian Ocean had kick-started by Cyclone Mahasen that had formed in the first half of May and gone on to hit Bangladesh.
We will keep a close watch and give you latest updates on the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing either in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal this May-June, which is the time storms develop.
Perusing the forecast data by the CFS Model one sees a powerful cyclone developing in southern Arabian Sea in the first week of June 2015. The cyclone is expected to move towards the coast of Oman and move along it some few hundred kilometers away
By June 10, 2015, the cyclone will curve north-eastward and hit the coast of Saurashtra between Porbandar and Dwarka and move north into western Kachch and then into Pakistan's Sindh Province
Let us make one thing very clear. The CFS Model is not very reliable. But it does give useful indications. In fact even the reliable GFS and ECMWF forecasts beyond ten days should be taken with a large pinch of salt.
But the cyclone season in the north Indian Ocean is about to begin. The sea temperatures are already over the cut-off point of 26.5 degrees C. The temperature required to fuel a tropical cyclone.
In 2014, the North Indian Ocean had kick-started by Cyclone Mahasen that had formed in the first half of May and gone on to hit Bangladesh.
We will keep a close watch and give you latest updates on the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing either in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal this May-June, which is the time storms develop.
Cyclone Joalane To Pass 250 Kilometers East of Rodrigues Thursday Night
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| SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0000 HRS GMT TODAY SHOWS CYCLONE JOALANE IN SW INDIAN OCEAN |
The eye of the storm will pass the closest to Rodrigues Island Thursday night (April 9, 2015) about 250 kilometers east of the island. Under the influence Rodrigues Island will face winds of 75 kph, gusts up to 100 kph. And this is a very conservative estimate.
The JTWC estimates that by tomorrow evening Joalane will have sustained wind speeds of 120 knots (223 kph), gusts up to 145 knots (270 kph). Perhaps a Category 4 hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Since the cyclone will pass about 800 kilometers from Mauritius there will no substantial influence on the island. But Rodrigues being nearer will face 75+ kph winds and heavy rainfall on Thursday.
The JTWC says other forecast models agree on the track forecast for cyclone Joalane. There is however some disagreement on the intensity of the storm. It is certain that Joalane is a powerful cyclone that is going to further intensify in the coming 30 hours.
Even now the sustained wind speeds in the storm are 130 kph. Presently it lies about 825 kilometers north-east of Mauritius.
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| TRACK FORECAST (JTWC) FOR CYCLONE JOALANE ISSUED AT 0300 HRS GMT TODAY |
MASCAREIGNES CYCLONE TO BE NAMED "JOALANE"
UPDATE: APRIL 7, 2015
Cyclone Joalane is going to continuously intensify and turn into a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. Presently according to conservative estimates it is throwing out winds of 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It lies about 825 kms north-east of Mauritius. Even at this distance, 30 kph winds are lashing Mauritius now. It will pass closest to Mauritius on April 10 (Friday) night (Local Time). The eye of the cyclone will be about 750 kms east of the island then.
Cyclone 21S in the southern Indian Ocean has been named cyclone Ikola. So the expected cyclone in the Mascareignes will be named cyclone JOALANE.
Ikola will have no impact on Mascareignes whatsoever as we have mentioned earlier. Ikola has intensified earlier so it looks bigger. But make no mistake Joalane is the storm to watch out for. Ikola will peter out in 48 hours. Joalane is expected to turn into something nasty.
JTWC PREDICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WILL HIT RODRIGUES WITH 180 KPH WINDS The JTWC has declared that Storm 91S is now tropical cyclone 22S. It for s intensifying all the time. Present sustained winds are 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph.
The cyclone is not likely to hit Mauritius directly but Rodrigues is in for it on April 11, 2015. 22S being a slow moving storm, the rough weather in the Mascareignes will continue for a week. Though Mauritius will not be directly hit such a large storm even 500 kms away will stir up things. The JTWC predicts 22S will peak on April 10 with sustained winds of 180 kph, gusts up to 230 kph. A big storm.
Future cyclone Joalane is intensifying. It will intensify continuously for the next 72 hours into a Cat 3 hurricane. The GFS expects Joalane to stay about 500 kms away from Mauritius at all times. It predicts a direct hit on Rodrigues on April 9-10. The European model predicts a path closer to Mauritius but one expects it will agree with the GFS forecast eventually. We will bring the latest updates.
ECMWF DIFFERS ON CYCLONE JOALANE TRACK WITH GFS There is some confusion as to the exact track of cyclone Joalane. The two major forecast models are saying slightly different things. The GFS as we mentioned earlier says the cyclone will keep its distance from Mauritius at all times. 500 kms at least. In contrast the latest forecast issued by the ECMWF at 0000 hours GMT today predicts the periphery of cyclone Joalane will pass through Mauritius on April 11-13, 2015. We have found that generally the GFS predictions prevail. Anyway we will keep you informed. The storm lies about 780 kms north-east of Mauritius now. It will not move eastwards anymore, but stay nearly stationary for the next 24 hours. After which it will intensify into a powerful cyclone and move south.
SEE CYCLONE JOALANE LIVE
Cyclone Joalane is going to continuously intensify and turn into a Cat. 2 or 3 hurricane. Presently according to conservative estimates it is throwing out winds of 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It lies about 825 kms north-east of Mauritius. Even at this distance, 30 kph winds are lashing Mauritius now. It will pass closest to Mauritius on April 10 (Friday) night (Local Time). The eye of the cyclone will be about 750 kms east of the island then.
Cyclone 21S in the southern Indian Ocean has been named cyclone Ikola. So the expected cyclone in the Mascareignes will be named cyclone JOALANE.
Ikola will have no impact on Mascareignes whatsoever as we have mentioned earlier. Ikola has intensified earlier so it looks bigger. But make no mistake Joalane is the storm to watch out for. Ikola will peter out in 48 hours. Joalane is expected to turn into something nasty.
JTWC PREDICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOALANE) WILL HIT RODRIGUES WITH 180 KPH WINDS The JTWC has declared that Storm 91S is now tropical cyclone 22S. It for s intensifying all the time. Present sustained winds are 70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph.
The cyclone is not likely to hit Mauritius directly but Rodrigues is in for it on April 11, 2015. 22S being a slow moving storm, the rough weather in the Mascareignes will continue for a week. Though Mauritius will not be directly hit such a large storm even 500 kms away will stir up things. The JTWC predicts 22S will peak on April 10 with sustained winds of 180 kph, gusts up to 230 kph. A big storm.
Future cyclone Joalane is intensifying. It will intensify continuously for the next 72 hours into a Cat 3 hurricane. The GFS expects Joalane to stay about 500 kms away from Mauritius at all times. It predicts a direct hit on Rodrigues on April 9-10. The European model predicts a path closer to Mauritius but one expects it will agree with the GFS forecast eventually. We will bring the latest updates.
ECMWF DIFFERS ON CYCLONE JOALANE TRACK WITH GFS There is some confusion as to the exact track of cyclone Joalane. The two major forecast models are saying slightly different things. The GFS as we mentioned earlier says the cyclone will keep its distance from Mauritius at all times. 500 kms at least. In contrast the latest forecast issued by the ECMWF at 0000 hours GMT today predicts the periphery of cyclone Joalane will pass through Mauritius on April 11-13, 2015. We have found that generally the GFS predictions prevail. Anyway we will keep you informed. The storm lies about 780 kms north-east of Mauritius now. It will not move eastwards anymore, but stay nearly stationary for the next 24 hours. After which it will intensify into a powerful cyclone and move south.
SEE CYCLONE JOALANE LIVE
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| TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS FOR CYCLONE JOALANE |
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| Latest satellite image of SW Indian Ocean taken at 0530 hours GMT today. |
South West Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone JOALANE To Form April 8, 2015
A very powerful tropical cyclone is likely to form north of Mauritius on April 8, 2015. It is presently a low pressure area 91S.
91S presently lies about 980 kilometers north east of Mauritius. Sustained winds are already 60 kph. We can say 91S is already a depression, just a step short of a cyclone.
In the next two days it will move west in the South Western Indian Ocean. By April 7, 2015, it will be about 630 kms NNE of Mauritius. After which it will intensify into a tropical cyclone by next day, Wednesday. The storm will then start moving south.
By April 9, 2015, Thursday, it will have turned into a powerful cyclone with sustained winds of 140 kph. It will be just 400 kms NNE of Mauritius on Thursday.
There is a chance that the cyclone (Ikola?) may intensify even more. We are looking at the possibility of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.
Present forecast say the cyclone will move between Rodrigues island and Mauritius. But even then Mauritius will face very bad weather. The situation will be made worse by the fact that cyclone Ikola will be a slow moving cyclone.
SEE THE CYCLONE LIVE
91S presently lies about 980 kilometers north east of Mauritius. Sustained winds are already 60 kph. We can say 91S is already a depression, just a step short of a cyclone.
In the next two days it will move west in the South Western Indian Ocean. By April 7, 2015, it will be about 630 kms NNE of Mauritius. After which it will intensify into a tropical cyclone by next day, Wednesday. The storm will then start moving south.
By April 9, 2015, Thursday, it will have turned into a powerful cyclone with sustained winds of 140 kph. It will be just 400 kms NNE of Mauritius on Thursday.
There is a chance that the cyclone (Ikola?) may intensify even more. We are looking at the possibility of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.
Present forecast say the cyclone will move between Rodrigues island and Mauritius. But even then Mauritius will face very bad weather. The situation will be made worse by the fact that cyclone Ikola will be a slow moving cyclone.
SEE THE CYCLONE LIVE
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| WEATHER FORECAST MAP: TROPICAL CYCLONE IKOLA (?) MOVING PAST MAURITIUS ON APRIL 12, 2015 |
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| FORECAST MAP ON APRIL 9, 2015 |
Typhoon Maysak To Enter North Philippines In Few Hours
Maysak may not be a super typhoon now but it is still packing winds of 70 kph, gusts up to 110 kph as it prepares to enter northern Philippines at Luzon Province.
It will make landfall into Cagayan, between Casiguran and Baler. The most affected will be central Luzon. The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will happen there. The storm will pass through the country in 24 hours.
Expect the strongest winds on the eastern coast of Luzon.
By the morning of Monday it will be all over.
See Typhoon MAYSAK live at http://tropicalcyclonelive.blogspot.in/2015/03/see-typhoon-maysak-live-april-2015.html
UPDATE: APRIL 5, 2015
The storm has entered Luzon. Within the next 12 hours it will move into the South China Sea. It is a mere depression now. But the island can expect heavy rainfall in the next 12 hours.
It will make landfall into Cagayan, between Casiguran and Baler. The most affected will be central Luzon. The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will happen there. The storm will pass through the country in 24 hours.
Expect the strongest winds on the eastern coast of Luzon.
By the morning of Monday it will be all over.
See Typhoon MAYSAK live at http://tropicalcyclonelive.blogspot.in/2015/03/see-typhoon-maysak-live-april-2015.html
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| THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS TYPHOON MAYSAK ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHERN PHILIPPINES |
The storm has entered Luzon. Within the next 12 hours it will move into the South China Sea. It is a mere depression now. But the island can expect heavy rainfall in the next 12 hours.
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| THE STORM WILL MOVE PAST LUZON IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS JUST A DEPRESSION NOW. |
POWERFUL CYCLONE TO FORM NORTH OF MAURITIUS APRIL 7
There is every likelihood of a powerful cyclone forming 500 kms NNE of Mauritius on April 7, 2015. The storm will pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues and head south. Though a direct hit is unlikey on Mauritius, conditions will be rough on April 7-9.
Keep in touch for further updates.
In the latest satellite image below is seen another cyclone 93S forming in the SE Indian Ocean. A weak storm, it will dissipate soon. The bigger storm will form north of Mauritius on April 7th.
TWO CYCLONES TO FORM IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IN THE COMING WEEK Two tropical cyclones are going to form in the S Indian Ocean in the coming days. Storm 93S will intensify soon into a cyclone and move south-east towards the south-western coastal waters of Australia. A weak storm it will form and weaken in a couple of days. 91S will be the bigger storm. It is presently a low pressure area in the ocean. By April 7 it will drift towards Mascareignes and intensify into a tropical cyclone north-east of Mauritius.
There is some confusion as to who will name Storm 93S. The Australians or the folks at Reunion? If 93S is named by the Australian Met then 91S will become Cyclone Ikola. Otherwise it will be named Joalane.
Track Forecast of Storm 91S (Future IKOLA?) in the SW Indian Ocean The Red Line is GFS Forecast Track Yellow Line is Canadian Model GEM. Blue Line is US Navy's NAVGEM Model Forecast.
In the latest satellite image below is seen another cyclone 93S forming in the SE Indian Ocean. A weak storm, it will dissipate soon. The bigger storm will form north of Mauritius on April 7th.
TWO CYCLONES TO FORM IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IN THE COMING WEEK Two tropical cyclones are going to form in the S Indian Ocean in the coming days. Storm 93S will intensify soon into a cyclone and move south-east towards the south-western coastal waters of Australia. A weak storm it will form and weaken in a couple of days. 91S will be the bigger storm. It is presently a low pressure area in the ocean. By April 7 it will drift towards Mascareignes and intensify into a tropical cyclone north-east of Mauritius.
There is some confusion as to who will name Storm 93S. The Australians or the folks at Reunion? If 93S is named by the Australian Met then 91S will become Cyclone Ikola. Otherwise it will be named Joalane.
Track Forecast of Storm 91S (Future IKOLA?) in the SW Indian Ocean The Red Line is GFS Forecast Track Yellow Line is Canadian Model GEM. Blue Line is US Navy's NAVGEM Model Forecast.
A Greatly Weakened Typhoon Maysak Will Hit Northern Philippines April 5 Morning
Typhoon Maysak will weaken considerably by the time it makes landfall into Northern Philippines at Luzon and Cagayan on the morning of April 5, 2015.
After wreaking havoc on Yap Islands super typhoon Maysak is moving towards northern Philippines. Currently it lies about 1700 kilometers from the coast of eastern Luzon.
It is already a super typhoon. In the coming hours it will intensify even more. It will be at its strongest at midnight tonight. The JTWC predicts it will then have sustained winds of 280 kph with gusts up to an astounding 330 kph.
But within 24 hours it will start weakening as it continues moving Philippines. Our estimate is that by the time it makes landfall into northern Philippines on the morning of April 5, 2015 (Local Time) it will be just whipping up winds of 75 kph, gusts up to 100 kph.
The coast of eastern Luzon can expect winds of about 60-80 kph on April 5. Accompanied, of course, by heavy rains. Mercifully Maysak will weaken a lot by that time. The imagination boggles when one images Maysak hitting Philippines with its present strength. Another Haiyan.
UPDATE: APRIL 2, 2015
There is no doubt that typhoon Maysak is already weakening as it moves towards northern Philippines. Though still a powerful storm now, it is weakening by the hour. It is expected to make landfall into Luzon on Saturday late night, April 4, 2015. At that time it will be little more than a weak tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 60-70 kph. Or less
So there is little peril for Philippines. Though the heavy rains may cause problems.
UPDATE: APRIL 2, 2015
There is no doubt that typhoon Maysak is already weakening as it moves towards northern Philippines. Though still a powerful storm now, it is weakening by the hour. It is expected to make landfall into Luzon on Saturday late night, April 4, 2015. At that time it will be little more than a weak tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 60-70 kph. Or less
So there is little peril for Philippines. Though the heavy rains may cause problems.
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| THE WEATHER FORECAST MAP SHOWS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE MAYSAK ENTERING LUZON ON LATE NIGHT SATURDAY, APRIL 4, 2015. |
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| LATEST TRACK FORECAST AND WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS) FOR SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK BY JTWC |
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