Typhoon MAYSAK A Super Typhoon Now, But Will Weaken By Phllippines Landfall

TYPHOON MAYSAK AT 0630 HRS GMT, MARCH 31, 2015

Typhoon Maysak is turning into a super typhoon. The JTWC estimates that by the time it passes by Yap Island in the next 24 hours it will have metamorphosed into a howling entity with winds of 260+ kph. Gusts of an awesome 300 kph.

But though looking at a satellite image of the West Pacific Ocean one fears the most for Philippines, as the storm is moving west, most forecast models say Maysak will weaken considerably by the time it reaches northern Philippines in Bikol-Calabarzon-Luzon areas on April 4-5, 2015.

By April 2nd it will have started weakening.  By 3rd April the wind speeds will have dropped to 120 kph. By April 4 it will be a 100 kph storm. By Saturday, April 5 when Maysak makes landfall into Bikol and North Visayas it will be a mere deep depression.

It is expected to pass through central Philippines. Through the Visayas and bring torrential rainfall in the region. But there is little chance of strong winds the area. Deep depressions have maximum winds of 50-65 kph.

So in conclusion, we can say Philippines can rest easy. We shall continuously monitor the situation and give you latest significant updates.

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Will Typhoon MAYSAK Hit Philippines?

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Typhoon Maysak has intensified over the last 24 hours. Presently it is leaving the Micronesian Islands of Pananu and Chuuk and moving west in the Pacific Ocean. Present sustained winds are 100 kph, gusts up to 140 kph.

After 48 hours it is going to smash into Yak Island with super typhoon winds (If JTWC predictions are to be believed) of 220 kph.

What after that. The JTWC is non-committal. Its forecast goes only until 3rd of April, 2015. At that stage Maysak wll be a few hundred kilometers away from Philippines coast.

We have rely on the mainstream forecast models to know beyond that. Let us examine what each of the global models say as to the track and intensity of typhoon Maysak. Please note that we only consider the GFS and the ECMWF models as reliable. Nevertheless we have considered all the models in our analysis.

GFS - Maysak will intensify in the coming days into a formidable storm. But by the time it makes landfall into northern Philippines (Luzon) it will have weakened into a mere deep depression on April 5, 2015.

ECMWF - The European Model agrees with the GFS Model. Maysak will weaken before making landfall into Philippines.

Canadian Model - Typhoon Maysak will be a powerful cyclone when it hits northern Luzon on April 4, 2015.

Navgem - A mid-sized typhoon Maysak will hit northern Luzon on April 5, 2015.

JMA - Maysak will be a mere depression when it enters Luzon on April 4, 2015.

In conclusion we may say that though typhoon Maysak may well strengthen into a powerful storm in the next few days, by the time it makes landfall into Philippines, it will have weakened considerably. May be a deep depression which will bring heavy rains to Luzon on April 4-5, 2015.

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Typhoon MAYSAK TO HIT NORTHERN PHILIPPINES APRIL 5, 2015

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The storm brewing in the West Pacific has intensified into a tropical Storm MAYSAK. There is bad news in store for Philippines. Maysak will intensify into a powerful typhoon in a few days and is expected to hit northern Philippines on April 5, 2015. Though the storm will weaken from its peak strength of 115 knots (220 kph) when it makes landfall into Philippines.

Tropical Storm Maysak is going to intensify rapidly in the coming days. The US Navy's JTWC predicts it will turn into a powerful 115 knots monster by April 1, 2015.

At 0300 hours GMT, March 28, 2015 the storm lay at 7.6 degrees North, 154.9 degrees East.

In the coming days the typhoon is going hit directly two islands. Chuuk Islands today itself and Yap Island on March 31, 2015. Yap is going to be hit badly as Maysak will have strengthen by then and 185 kph winds will lash the island.

As for Philippines, the storm being a slow moving storm will reach it on April 5, 2015. The areas where the storm will make landfall are Bikol, Calabarzon and Central Luzon.

The European forecast model says Maysak will hit the country a day earlier, on April 4, 2015. It predicts a hit on Luzon. This model foersees a stronger  storm than the GFS Model.

Philippines is going to face typhoon Maysak on April 4-5, 2015.

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TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WILL INTENSIFY INTO A TYPHOON AND IMPACT PHILIPPINES ON APRIL 4-5, 2015

PHILIPPINES FACES MASSIVE STORM on April 5, 20

Trouble is brewing in the western Pacific. A massive typhoon is being spawned. It is just a depression now but the JTWC warns the system will turn into a typhoon blowing winds of 200 kmph in few days.

And it is going to hit Philippines on April 5, 2015.

Keep in touch for latest updates.

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Early Storm Prediction: March 23, 2015: Cyclone Possible In Southern Indian Ocean By Month End

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The powerful Pam has become history. The persistent Cyclone Nathan makes its final landfall into Australia's northern Territory. But in a week there is another tropical storm in the offing.

A cyclone is brewing in the southern Indian Ocean and is likely to form on March 29, 2015 a a few hundred kilometres north-east of Rodrigues Island. Present forecasts say the cyclone will move south-easterly and so poses no threat to Mascareignes. Keep in touch for the latest.

Cyclone Nathan To Make Landfall Into Arnhem Land In Coming Hours

See VIDEO: Nathan in Northern Territory. March 2015
See Tropical Cyclone Nathan LIVE

Update: March 23, 2015

CYCLONE NATHAN TO HIT ARNHEM LAND IN COMING HOURS: LITTLE EFFECT ON DARWIN

Tropical cyclone Nathan has traveled a long way in the recent past. It is now hovering in the Arafura Sea off the coast of Northern Territory, Australia.

Presently it packs quite a punch with winds of 85 kmph. But in the next 24 hours it is going to make landfall into Arnhem Land and weaken.

By the time it reaches Darwin it will have weakened considerably and only bring some showers to the city. But it will remain windy for the next couple of days.

The JTWC in contrast says the storm will be quite powerful when it moves past Darwin with winds of 65 kmph on March 25 (Darwin Time). But we beg to differ.

But it will strengthen a little to a depression again when it enters the Indian Ocean on March 26, 2015. It will not regain its cyclone strength.

THIS SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0230 HRS GMT, MARCH 23, 2015, SHOWS CYCLONE NATHAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO ARNHEM LAND IN THE NORTHERN TERRITORY

THE JTWC BELIEVES NATHAN WILL THROW UP WINDS OF 65 KMPH WHEN IT PASSES DARWIN. BUT THAT SEEMS IMPROBABLE.

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Tropical Cyclone Nathan is going to intensify and hit Cooktown on the Queensland coast of Australia on the night of March 19-20. The storm will then move across northern Queensland and enter the Gulf of Carpentaria. Nathan is going to travel a long way.

The cyclone is presently 400 kilometers east of Cooktown in the Coral Sea. A significant storm, it is spewing sustained winds of 85 kmph. Gusts up to 100 kmph.

It is moving west gradually. In the coming days it will intensify to peak wind speeds of 140 kmph. It will weaken a little at the time of landfall at Cooktown, Queensland on the night of March 19-20, 2015 (Thursday-Friday). Expected sustained winds at landfall are 125 kmph.

Nathan will then travel across northern Queensland  and enter sea again into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday morning (Australian Time). It will be quite a storm then with wind speeds of 85 kmph. It will intensify again to 100 kmph when it passes through Groote Eylandt in the Gulf.

Quite a storm!

On March 22 it will make landfall into Northern Territory. Into Arnhem Land. But it will have weakened considerably by them. Even then it might bring showers to Darwin on March 24, 2015.

Read More On Tropical Cyclone Nathan

LATEST TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE NATHAN. BY THE TIME IT NEARS DARWIN IT WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE AREA

Cyclone Nathan To Hit Queensland Early Hours of March 20 (Brisbane Time) As Category Three Storm

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There is trouble brewing in the Coral Sea for the Queensland coast of Australia. Cyclone Nathan will intensfy into a category 3 cyclone and hit the area just north of Cairns on March 20, 2015 (Brisbane Time).

Nathan has come and kissed the coast of Queensland earlier, than drawn away back to the Coral Sea. It has been aimlessly wandering about in the last few days.

It presently lies about 450 kilometers east-north-east of Cairns in the Coral Sea. In the coming days it will intensify gradually and move towards the Queensland coast.

By early March 19, 2015 it will have become a 150 kph howling monster. It will intensify further to winds of 160 kph and then hit the Queensland coast just north of Cairns on Thursday afternoon (GMT), early hours of Friday (Brisbane Time).

At landfall wind speeds may reach 175 kph with gusts up to 200 kph.

Read More On Tropical Cyclone Nathan

SATELLITE IMAGE OF CYCLONE NATHAN TAKEN AT 0330 HRS GMT MARCH 17, 2015. IT IS GOING TO INTENSIFY AND HIT THE QUEENSLAND COAST NEAR CAIRNS ON MARCH 20 AS A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE.

TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE NATHAN MARCH 2015

Personal Account Of Super Cyclone Pam, 2015

Vanuatu Oxfam country director Collett van Rooyen wrote about the experience for the charity, describing the moment the cyclone hit.

 "We knew (almost) exactly where she was and what her most likely next move would be and we knew that she would only reveal to us her secrets as she arrived over us," she wrote.

 "...Regular radio announcements in calm tones; traditional Vanuatu string-band music in between statements of how harsh things may be when she gets to us. 

"All a bit surreal really. The cyclone shutters boarding up our windows and doors start to shudder, at first gently and irregularly and then faster and constant. Pam is now moving in, getting closer to us at a rate of 10, 15, 20 kilometers per hour.

 " Her eye moves at an astounding speed, creating wind forces of unimaginable speeds. "Can you imagine 'over 200km an hour'? I couldn't at the time. But I could hear it. I now know the sound of 200km per hour or more, and I don't think I would willingly subject myself to it again. Pam arrived announced by the drum roll of our shutters. Then she roared, she squealed, she hissed. She spat and cursed in deep bass tones, and at the same time she whistled and screeched in ways that messed with our senses. What was that we just heard? 

"Someone outside screaming? The high-pitched string band notes we had heard earlier on the radio? No, the radio was off and people had taken shelter. It was Pam in her many voices. She spoke a language of essential fear at its most primitive and we understood it instantly."

VIDEO: Aftermath of cyclone Pam at Port-Vila, Vanuatu

Text and Video Source: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/cyclone-pam-roared-squealed-hissed-as-it-hit-20150315-144f01.html

Tropical Storm BAVI Set To Hit Guam Late March 15, 2015

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Tropical Storm Bavi is deep in the Western Pacific Ocean. It is about 80 nautical miles south of Ujelang, an uninhabited island of the Marshall islands. Presently it has winds of 60 kph.

Bavi will never be a big storm. But it is significant because in the next two days it is going to move and hit the island of Guam. The island, as we all know, has a significant US military base.

Tropical Storm Bavi is going to hit Guam on the evening of March 15, 2015 (Local Time) with winds of 80 kph.

By the time the storm reaches Philippines on March 19, 2015, it will have weakened considerably to a mere depression. Or even less. Bavi has dissipated almost completely.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM BAVI. IT IS GOING TO HIT GUAM ONMARCH 15, 2015

Tropical Cyclone OLWYN To Hit Western Australian Coast At Carnarvon

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UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015, 0630 GMT

STORM ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SHARK BAY

It is a significant storm, throwing winds of 100 kph and it is presently at Shark Bay.  After that it will make landfall, half in the ocean, half on land and move along the West Australian coast. It is going to weaken and move on to Perth in 24 hours as a low pressure area.

Within the next 12 hours it will cease to be a tropical storm. Just a low pressure area. But expect strong winds and downpours along the coast from Carnarvon to Geraldton.

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015: 0700 HOURS GMT

CYCLONE OLWYN HAS INTENSIFIED MORE THAN EXPECTED.

Just yesterday forecast models had predicted that tropical cyclone Olwyn would not be a big storm. Just a 80 kph storm. But Olwyn has belied expectations.

It has already turned into a 90 kph storm. A Category 2 cyclone. The JTWC expects it to graduate to a Category 3 with speeds of 70 knots soon.

Presently it lies 240 kilometers north of Exmouth. 230 kilometers north-north-west of Onslow in the Pilbara Region of Western Australia.

It will move along the coast but not make landfall. On March 13 (March 14 in Australia) it will move inland at Shark Bay near the town of Carnarvon.

It will weaken on landfall. and move south and bring some rains to Perth. It will enter the Great Australian Bight on March 15, 2015.

THE TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE OLWYN

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015. 1230 HOURS GMT

Cyclone Olwyn is a weak strom compared to the super cyclone Pam rushing into Vanuatu. Or compared to cyclone Nathan which is going to lash Queensland coast with 100 kph winds.

The best that Olwyn will do is rustle up winds of 80 kph. It is going to make landfall at Onslow in Western Australia on the night of March 12, that is Friday night.

After that it is going to move south close along the Australian coast and bring windy weather and rains to Perth on March 14, 2015. After that it will move into land and dissipate.

But one could expect winds and rains along the West Australian coast  extending from Port Hedland to Perth. The town affected will be Onslow, Carnarvon, Geraldton and finally Perth.

Presently cyclone Olwyn lies about 575 kilometers north of Onslow. About 540 kilometers north-west of Port Hedland. Its currently throwing up winds of 60 kph. The central minimum pressure is 1002 Mb. More of a deep depression than a tropical storm.

The JTWC believes cyclone 19S (Olwyn) will move inland after hitting Onslow and will not affect Perth. So the JTWC prediction differs from the prediction by the GFS Forecast Model.

We think the GFS Model forecast will prevail.

THE US NAVY'S JTWC BELIEVES CYCLONE OLWYN WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER HITTING ONSLOW IN WESTERN AUTRALIA. THE GFS PREDICTS OLWYN WILL REACH PERTH ON MARCH 14, 2015

Tropical Cyclone NATHAN (95P) Latest Updates: WILL HIT QUEENSLAND COAST MARCH 19, 2015

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Read Latest updates on cyclone Nathan

UPDATE: MARCH 16, 2015. 0400 HRS GMT

CYCLONE NATHAN IS 250 KILOMETRES NORTH OF WILLIS ISLAND NOW

It is 530 kilometres north-east of Cairns on the Australian coast of Queensland. Sustained winds of 110 kph.

In the next 48 hours the storm is going to make a U-turn and head back to the coast of Queensland. Opinions differ amongst various forecast model. The GFS predicts landfall on the evening of March 19, 2015 between Cairns and Townsville.

The European Model says it will hit Cooktown on March 20. It is likely that the Australian Willis Island, which has an monitoring station of the Australian Met, may be visited by the storm.

The Queensland coast is going to face a situation of cyclone Nathan making landfall with 140 kph winds on the morning of March 19, 2015.(Thursday).

The entire stretch of the coast from Cooktown to Mackay is in for torrential rains and strong winds on Thursday

UPDATE: MARCH 14, 2015. 0930 HRS GMT

NATHAN WILL COME BACK AND HIT QUEENSLAND AGAIN ON MARCH 19, 2015

Tropical cyclones are by nature very unpredictable. Cyclone Nathan proves the adage again. Earlier forecasts said the storm would intensify and move over to New Caledonia or Vanuatu.

But no! It has changes its mind again. Latest predictions are the presently weak Nathan will start intensifying rapidly again, turn a circle in the Coral Sea and come back and hit the coast of Queensland hard on March 19, 2015, north of Townsville with winds of 150+ kph.

But considering the moody nature of Nathan we have to wait a couple of days and see what he does next.

LATEST FORECASTS SAY CYCLONE NATHAN WILL HIT QUEENSLAND ON MARCH 19, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 0630 HRS GMT

CYCLONE NATHAN IS NOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE QUEENSLAND COAST

The storm has winds of 90 kph. In the coming days it is going to further intensify. Forecasts say it is headed to southern Vanuatu. It will reach them on March 18, 2015. And worse still it is going to potter around for the next five days. A ghastly scenario. A significant cyclone hangs around in the same place for five days. And that too the area super cyclone Pam will batter in the coming 24 hours.

Bad times indeed for southern Vanuatu

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015, 0630 GMT

TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN WILL HOVER NEAR COAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

It is presently 360 kilometers north of Cairns. 200 kilometers north of Cooktown in the Coral Sea. It will stay nearly stationary for another 24 hours. After that it will intensify and fall back and move away from the Queensland coast.

Even now it has sustained winds of 80+ kph. And it is raining in the entire Cape York Peninsula with heavier showers on the coastal areas.

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 1230 HOURS GMT 

NATHAN HAS INTENSIFIED TO A 90 KPH STORM

Cyclone Nathan is about 200 kilometers north-north-east of Cooktown, Queensland. And about 350 kilometers north (approx.) of Cairns. Sustained wind speeds are 90 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. Winds of 55 kph are already lashing Cooktown. They are slightly less at Cairns. About 40 kph.

In the next 12 hours Nathan will creep closer to Cooktown. The 'eye' of the storm will lie practically over the town. After that it will slowly inch away into the Coral Sea on March 13.

The prospect of Nathan with its 100 kph winds hanging around close to the Cooktown coast for about 36-48 hours will not be pleasant.
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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 0630 HOURS GMT

CYCLONE NATHAN MAY HIT NEW CALEDONIA ON MARCH 19, 2015

It is generally agreed that tropical cyclone Nathan will not make landfall into Queensland but swing back into the Coral Sea on March 13, 2015. What is not widely known is that after that the cyclone may hit New Caledonia Island on March 19, 2015 as a significant storm. Possibly a category 3 cyclone.
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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015. 0330 HOURS GMT

BAD NEWS FOR QUEENSLAND: NATHAN IS GOING TO STAY NEAR STATIONARY NEAR COAST FOR 48 HOURS, MARCH 11-13, 2015

A tropical cyclone passing over any region is bad enough. But if it just hovers almost motionless for 48 hours, that is reason for big concern. Cyclone Nathan is going to do just that near the Queensland coast at Cooktown. It will just stand there touching the coast from March 11-13. After that it will fall back into the Coral Sea. It will not make landfall into Queensland.

Right now it is slowly moving towards the Australian coast. It is about 210 kilometers north-east of Cooktown, 340 kilometers north-north-east of Cairns. It is already throwing winds of 85 kph gusts up to 110 kph. Cooktown and Cairns are facing winds of about 50 kph right now. And heavy rains have already started in these two towns. And they will continue for another two days.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN

CYCLONE NATHAN AT 0600 HRS GMT, MARCH 11, 2015

PDATE: MARCH 10, 2015, 0613 hours GMT

TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN WILL FORM TODAY OFF QUEENSLAND

The South-West Pacific has got busy. After spawning super cyclone Pam, the Coral Sea will give birth to cyclone Nathan after nine hours today.

Future cyclone Nathan is a depression now termed 95P by NOAA. It is hovering around near the coast of Queensland, Australia.

By 1500 GMT today it will have intensified into a cyclone. By late evening on Thursday it will have intensified into a Category 3 storm and reached the Queensland coast at Cooktown in southern Cape York Peninsula.

But it will not make landfall. Instead it will swing back into the Coral Sea.

As to its future after that, the American GFS Forecast System predicts it will go on to hit the southern islands of Vanuatu on March 16, 2015. One must keep in mind that Vanuatu is expecting a near direct hit from the massive tropical cyclone Pam in the coming two days.

THIS IMAGE TAKEN AT 0430 HOURS GMT TODAY SHOWS CYCLONE NATHAN GRADUALLY TAKING SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA

SUPER CYCLONE PAM (17P) 2015: Latest Updates: PASSING NEW ZEALAND NOW

UPDATE: MARCH 16, 2015. 0330 HRS GMT

EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM IS PASSING EAST CAPE NOW

The storm is 110 kilometres north-east of Gisborne and just 50 kilometres from the coast of New Zealand. Sustained winds of 80+ kph are lashing Gisborne now. Gusts are 110 kph. The sea is very rough. Wave height is 7-8 metres in the coast of east Cape.

The southern coast of South Island is peaceful now. But that will change as Pam moves south. The entire southern coast of the country from Christchurch to Gisborne will face winds of 50 kph for another 48 hours. Seas will remain rough tilll March 18, 2015 afternoon (NZ Time). Expect 6 metres waves for another 48 hours.

The incessant showers will start ceasing after 24 hours.

But the New Zealand island of Chathams which is 680 kms from South Island is in for rough wet weather for another 60 hours. The present 60 kph winds will rise to 80-90 kph before tapering off on March 20, 2015.

UPDATE: MARCH 15, 2015. 0300 HRS GMT

CYCLONE PAM IS 500 KILOMETRES FROM NEW ZEALAND COAST

The storm is now about 500 kilometres north of Paihia, North Island. Sustained winds of 125 kph. Winds of 60 kph are already hitting the northern parts of North Island.

 In the coming hours Pam will pass close by Gisborne area which will experience heavy rains and 80+ kph winds. Showers are expected all over New Zealand, especially on North Island. Heaviest in East Cape.

The effects of Pam will wear off on March 17, 2015 as the storm will move away from the country to the south.

UPDATE: MARCH 14, 2015. 0830 HRS GMT

CYCLONE PAM IS PASSING BY NEW CALEDONIA

The storm has departed the shores of Vanuatu. Heavens alone knows what destruction it has left in its wake.

Presently the storm is passing 340 kilometers east of Noumea, New Caledonia and heading rapidly south clocking 20 kph. Even now it is still one hell of a storm. Sustained winds of 160 kph, gusts up to 190 kph.

NEW ZEALAND IN TROUBLE AS PAM WILL COME QUITE CLOSE ON MARCH 17, 2015

There is bad news for New Zealand. Earlier predictions said cyclone Pam would not pass by the country close. But latest forecasts say otherwise. Pam is going to pass less than 100 kilometers away from the East Cape. Just 160 kilometers from Gisborne.

And even on March 17 Pam will have sustained winds of 120 kph. The eastern coast of North Island will start to face winds of 60 kph (Including Auckland) from March 15, 2015. The coastal areas, including Whakatane and Tauranga will have 80 kph winds. Incessant moderate to heavy rains expected in the entire North Island from March 15-17.

CYCLONE PAM VISITING NEW ZEALAND ON MARCH 15, 2015

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST ISSUED AT 0300 HRS GMT, MARCH 14

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 1130 HRS GMT

PORT-VILA BEING BATTERED: ERROMANGO, TANNA, AMATOM NEXT

Super cyclone Pam is passing less than 100 kilometers east of Port-Vila as we write. Our conservative sustained wind speeds estimate is 180 kph, gusts up to 220 kph. The JTWC says 260 kph, gusts up to 320 kph.

A horrendous phenomenon. Hell on Earth. Nature gone crazy.

In the coming hours the southern most Vanuatu Islands will face Pam's frenzy. The nightmare that Vanuatu is experiencing will start abating from 0600 hours, March 14, 2015 as Pam will move south away from the waters of Vanuatu.

One shudders what destruction is being wreaked in the country now.

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST BY JTWC IS SUED AT 0900 HRS, MARCH 13, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 13, 2015. 0230 HRS GMT

SUPER CYCLONE PAM IS NOW 200 KILOMETERS NW OF PORT-VILA

The islands of Ambrym and Epi are getting the maximum hammering. Port-Vila is next. The storm is entering it as we speak. For the next six hours it will face winds of 200 kph.

But the worst is in store for the three southern most islands of Vanuatu: Erromango, Tanna and Anatom (Aneitym). Possibly the eye of the storm will pass right through these places. The cyclone will move away from Anatom only at 0300 hours GMT, March 14.

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015. 1130 GMT

AFTER 12 HOURS SUPER CYCLONE PAM WILL ENTER VANUATU. PORT-VILA TO BE HIT AT 0300 GMT, MARCH 13

Many forecasters are saying that super cyclone Pam is going to move east of Vanuatu, hence there is less danger.

This is a dangerous misconception.

Firstly because Pam is huge monster. 600 kilometers core diameter. So even if the eye of the storm passes by a 100-200 kilometers away the winds will be devastating

Secondly, The US navy's JTWC says the storm will pass east (by a couple hundred kilometers) of Vanuatu. The GFS predicts a closer path. Both the European Model and GFS foretell a near direct hit on Port-Vila, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Massive destruction can be expected on these islands.

Thirdly, cyclones by nature are fickle and very unpredictable. Just a month ago everybody was expecting cyclone Marcia off the Queensland coast to be a category 2-3 storm. Instead it turned into a Cat 5 cyclone for a while.

Analyzing the different forecast models, one can safely say that Fiji is totally safe. Vanuatu is in for real trouble. Even parts of New Caledonia will get a thorough lashing.

THIS STORM FORECAST MAP CLEARLY SHOWS SUPER CYCLONE PAM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN VANUATU ISLANDS INCLUDING CAPITAL PORT-VILA ON MARCH 13, 2015

NEW ZEALAND NOT TOTALLY SAFE FROM PAM

Some forecasters are already saying New Zealand will not be affected much by Pam (It will be an extra-tropical cyclone then).

But one has to be wary before being so optimistic. GFS predicts a lashing on the east coast of North Island. The European Model forecasts Pam will move even closer to New Zealand on March 16, 2015

THIS STORM FORECAST MAP CLEARLY SHOWS EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM MOVING VERY CLOSE BY NEW ZEALAND ON MARCH 16, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 12, 2015. 0500 HOURS GMT

WORST HIT WILL BE SOUTHERN VANUATU ISLANDS

Tropical cyclone Pam is about 1025 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. 290 kilometers northeast of Vanuatu's Maewo Island. Sustained wind speeds are 140 kph, gusts up to 180 kph.

Even at this distance the northern islands of the country are witnessing winds of over 60 kph.

In the next 24 hours the storm will move past Penama Province and start affecting the islands of Shefa Province ( Ambrym, Epi and Elate islands).

By night of March 13 (Local Time) Pam will move closest to southern Vanuatu. The province of Tafea will be worst hit. That includes the islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. These three islands will face the brunt of the super cyclone's fury. Sustained winds of 200 kph. And our estimates are very conservative. The JTWC predicts much stronger winds.

TRACK FORECAST FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 1200 HOURS GMT

SUPER CYCLONE PAM NEARING VANUATU

The cyclone is about 425 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo Island, Vanuatu. And 1175 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. Wind speeds are 150 kph, gusts up to 180 kilometers. Central Minimum Pressure is 972 Mb. A clear sign that the storm is intensifying.

50+ kph winds are already lashing the islands of Vanuatu. And rainfall has already started in Vanuatu and Fiji. Pam is a very large diameter cyclone. The frightening part is the 'eye' of the storm is going to pass just about 100 kilometers from the islands of Vanuatu. This part of the cyclone will have the worst winds. The so-called 'eye-wall'.

LATEST CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST BY THE JTWC. ISSUED AT 0900 HOURS, MARCH 11, 2015

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UPDATE: MARCH 11, 2015, 0630 HRS GMT

NEW ZEALAND'S NORTH ISLAND MAY RECEIVE SOME LASHING FROM PASSING SUPER CYCLONE PAM ON MARCH 16, 2015

Though cyclone Pam is not going to hit New Zealand directly, it may have some effect as it passes by the country on March 16, 2015. The eastern coast of North island will see rough seas and winds in excess of 100 kph. Not to mention the rains. especially affected will be Gisborne and perhaps Rotorua.

FIJI SAFE FROM SUPER CYCLONE PAM

It is clear (All forecast models agree) that super cyclone Pam is going to move right through the islands of Vanuatu. This means Fiji will hardly feel any effect of this storm except incessant light showers and winds of about 50 kph as Pam blasts through Vanuatu. Fiji is safe from cyclone Pam.

PARTS OF NEW CALEDONIA MAY GET SOME TAIL LASHING FROM SUPER CYCLONE PAM ON MARCH 14

Even as cyclone Pam moves south into the Pacific it's outer periphery may give some parts of New Caledonia a lashing on March 14, 2015. Especially Noumea on the southern tip, islands of Ouvea, Lifou, Pins, Tiga and Mare. Winds of about 100 kph and heavy rains.
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UPDATE:MARCH 11, 2015, 0235 GMT

BAD NEWS FOR VANUATU: CYCLONE PAM WILL HAVE WINDS OF 260+ KPH TOMORROW NIGHT

The JTWC has confirmed that super cyclone Pam is going to move very close by the islands of Vanuatu. A near direct hit. Worse still it predicts in its 2100 Hours GMT, March 10 bulletin that on March 12 night Pam will turn into something awful with sustained winds of 260 kph gusting up to a staggering 320 kph. At this time it will be passing the northern islands of Vanuatu. It brings back memories of the devastating cyclone of 1999 that hit the Indian coast of Odisha with winds of nearly 400 kph. 15000 people had died.

The southern islands of Vanuatu will suffer near direct hits on March 13, 2015. That includes the capital Port-Vila. Erromango, Tanna and Anatom will suffer the most

Cyclone Pam is presently 440 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo, Vanuatu. 1200 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji. Sustained winds of 150 kph, gusts of 180 kph.

JTWC CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST ISSUED AT 0300 HRS, MARCH 11, 2015. MORE BAD NEWS. PAM IS GOING TO BE STRONGER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 260+ KPH, GUSTS 0F 340+ KPH. AND IT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO VANUATU

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UPDATE: MARCH 10, 2015, 0343 GMT

Bad news for Vanuatu. Super cyclone Pam may move right through the country with devastating winds. The JTWC estimates that on March Pam will reach wind speeds of 240 kph, gusting up to 280 kph. The worst affected islands will be Maewo, Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Very strong winds exceeding 200+ kph (Gusts will be even more) will hit these islands.

The latest track forecast for the cyclone by JTWC shows the path westwards. The GFS predicts a path even closer to the islands of Vanuatu.

The storm will hit Maewo on March 12 at about 1200 hours GMT and then move south through other islands of Vanuatu in the following 36 hours.

Cyclone Pam is presently about 600 kilometers north-north-east of Maewo, Vanuatu. Sustained wind speed is 90 kph. Central Minimum Pressure is 984 Mb.

UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Future super cyclone (Category 5) Pam has already been born. It is already throwing out winds of 80 kph. It is about 1400 kilometers north-west of Suva, Fiji.

In the coming days it is expected to move south. As to its predicted path there seems to some disagreement between the GFS Model and the JTWC. The JTWC says Pam will move right between Vanuatu and Fiji. The GFS foretells a path closer to Vanuatu. Hence if one goes by the GFS forecast, Vanuatu is going to take a bigger hit.

Even if the cyclone moves between Vanuatu and Fiji, this being a very large, powerful cyclone, the impact on these countries will be considerable.

The closer Cyclone Pam moves to either Vanuatu or Fiji, the more damage it will cause there. Cyclone Pam is going to cause a lot of damage. The question is how much.

We shall continue keeping a close watch on the emerging cyclone and note any change in its path.

CYCLONE PAM TRACK FORECAST AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS (IN KNOTS): SOURCE- JTWC: ISSUED MARCH 9, 2015, 0900 HOURS GMT

Vanuatu In For Double Whammy: Cyclone Pam Then Nathan

Vanuatu, at least some of the southern islands, are in for big trouble. It is going to be hit by two cyclones in a span of four days. Cyclone Nathan will soon follow the bigger cyclone Pam.

Even as tropical cyclone Pam is brewing in the south Pacific east of Solomon Islands, another storm Nathan is about to be born near the coast of Queensland, Australia in the Coral Sea.

And both these storms are going to bring big trouble to some islands of Vanuatu, especially Erromango and Tanna. pam is going to come first on March 12. Cyclone Nathan will arrive howling four days later, on March 16, 2015.

Talking of tropical cyclone Pam: it is likely that it is going to move through Vanuatu. Fiji seems to be safe. Pam is going to hit Vanuatu islands on March 11 and move through them in the next 48 hours after that.

Cyclone Nathan is going to form tomorrow near the southern most tip of Papua New Guinea and move towards the Queensland coast. But it will not make landfall but instead swing back into the Coral Sea and move towards New Caledonia. It is expected to move between New Caledonia and Vanuatu on the 16th of March, 2015. The islands of Lifou and Mare will suffer direct hits.

The ECMWF Model has something different in store for tropical cyclone Nathan. It believes the storm will not swing back into the Coral Sea but continue hugging the coast of Queensland. If this comes true, coastal Queensland is for some real rough weather in the coming days.

Though Nathan will be smaller than cyclone Pam it will still be a significant tropical cyclone with a minimum pressure of 981 Mb.

Vanuatu islands are a paradise for tourists. They are strongly advised to avoid the the islands for a week.

Queensland, Australia May Be Visited By Tropical Cyclone Nathan

Cyclone Nathan will form in the next 48 hours. That is on March 10, 2015, a few hundred kilometers off the eastern coast of Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland, Australia in the Coral Sea.

Soon it will intensify and move close to the coast of Queensland. It will not make landfall but hover around the coast near Cooktown, gradually move south along the coast and then move away from land back into the Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan is going to be a nasty little storm. Quite small compared to the gargantuan Pam expected further east in the Pacific Ocean but it may whip up winds in excess of  100 kph on coastal Queensland till March 14, 2015 after which it will swing back into the sea.

Only the eastern coastal stretch of Queensland near Cooktown will be affected. Cairns may experience some gusts and some rain but not much. Cape York Peninsula is in for some heavy rainfall in the coming days.

But after seeing cyclone Marcia suddenly unexpectedly intensifying into a category 5 hurricane for a while a few days ago, one can only keep our fingers crossed. One hopes Nathan will not turn out to be as freakish as Marcia.

Cyclone Nathan is going to give the Queensland authorities sleepless night as it is going to intensify and come towards the coast of Cooktown. But fortunately it will swing away back into the sea on March 12, 2015 without making landfall.

Nathan is going to be a significant tropical cyclone with a central minimum pressure of 979 Mb.

Vanuatu And Fiji Stare At Possible Category 5 Cyclone Pam

UPDATE: MARCH 8, 2015

 Latest forecasts indicate that expected tropical cyclone Pam is going to move slightly eastwards from its earlier predicted path. Instead of hitting Vanuatu directly it will move right between Vanuatu and Fiji Islands. Though present forecasts rule out a direct impact on Fiji, it is going to move past it too close for comfort on March 13, 2015.

There are five more days to go and Pam might change its path again. If that happens it is going to be real bad news for Fiji. I am sure the alarm bells must be ringing loud on that island.

Because we are staring at a monster in the making.

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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015

 93P is an innocuous little low pressure area in the South Pacific presently. But in a few days it is going to turn into a massive destructive possible category 5 Hurricane PAM which is going to devastate Vanuatu.

The system lies east of the Solomon Islands and just north of the Santa Cruz islands. Location 7.8 degrees South, 169.9 degrees East. Wind speed is 25 kph. By tomorrow it is going to intensify into Tropical Cyclone Pam as it slowly moves in a south-south-west direction and hit Vanuatu on March 11, 2015.

The bad news for Vanuatu is that even as it passes through the islands Pam will be intensifying all the while. And we are looking at a massive cyclone of an expected central minimum pressure of 933 Mb. Huge. Powerful. And destructive. Vanuatu is in for winds of 225 kph (may be more) gusting up to 250 kph.

Tropical cyclone Pam is going to take about 48 hours to cross the Vanuatu Islands. So a large scale destruction is not ruled out. Port-Vila is going to be badly hit.

The only possible good news is that the European Forecast Model presages the storm will not hit Vanuatu directly but pass by it very close. In contrast the reliable GFS model predicts a direct hit.

All the models say Pam is going to be a God-awful storm. One certainly hopes the authorities will take early note of the impending threat and take all possible precautions.

A word of advice to tourists who have travel plans for Vanuatu in the coming week. Cancel them earliest possible.

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: MARCH 11, 2015. CYCLONE PAM ABOUT TO HIT VANUATU

Tropical Depression 94S (Cyclone Haliba) Will Bring Wet Windy Weather To Mascareignes From March 9

UPDATE (EXTRA): MARCH 9, 2015

CYCLONE HALIBA IS NOW CLOSEST TO REUNION ISLAND We are talking of now. 1330 GMT. Haliba is 100 kilometers south-west of Reunion Island. After this it will move away. The winds in Reunion now are about 60 kph, gusts will be more. The cyclone being weak and of a smaller diameter is affecting Mauritius less. Winds of barely 35 kph. This will gradually go up to 50 kph. From tomorrow they will start easing off in Mauritius too.

By March 11, 2015 the rains will ease off both in Reunion and Mauritius. Even now they are not much. Just incessant drizzle with some moderate winds.

The focus is now shifting to south-west Pacific which is going to see the possible super cyclone Pam and also quite a powerful but less predictable Tropical cyclone Nathan. The image below, is a water vapor image of cyclone Haliba taken at 0600 GMT today morning.

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UPDATE: MARCH 9, 2015

Well, Storm 94S did manage to get named HALIBA. But it is more of a deep depression than a tropical storm. The central minimum pressure will be 996 Mb. Hardly cyclone material.

But it will bring dark, gloomy, rainy and windy weather to the Mascareignes for a couple of days. The dull weather will stretch on till Wednesday because the remnants of tropical storm 15S will drift into the region adding to the unstable weather.

But things will clear up on Thursday.

Expect on-off rains and winds of 40 kph in Mauritius and slightly more In Reunion for a couple of days.

Cyclone Haliba is just a little boy who will not grow up.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE OF TROPICAL STORM HALIBA WITH ITS PROJECTED PATH. IMAGE TAKEN AT 0600 GMT, MARCH 9, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 8, 2015

There is little doubt that 94S will not transform into a tropical cyclone. The system is desperately trying to grow up and mature into a cyclone but unfavourable conditions are preventing it.

The system presently lies about 520 kilometers west-north-west of Reunion Island. In the next two days it is going to move east and pass right through Reunion.

94S is not going to turn into a cyclone but it is going to bring rainy, windy weather in the Mascareignes till Wednesday. The skies will clear up on Thursday.
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UPDATE: MARCH 7, 2015

The cyclone threat to the Mascareignes seems to have receded but the region is in for a very wet windy time in the coming days as a deep depression will pass through it.

Latest forecasts say tropical cyclone Fifteen will fizzle out after making landfall into Madagascar but it is going to add to the rains that are to hit Mascareignes in the next two days.

Storm 94S which presently lies a few hundred kilometers west of Mauritius is slowly going to move south first then angle across and pass close to Reunion island (ECMWF predicts a direct hit) on March 9-10, 2015. 94S will be a depression then. So expect continuous showers and winds of 40-55 kph in Reunion and Mauritius from March 9 onwards. Reunion will be affected more.

Even after 94S passes over, the remnants of cyclone 15 will hop over into the Mascareignes and pass through it as a low pressure area. This will add another day of overcast, wet and windy weather.

In conclusion showers and winds up to 55 kph expected in Reunion and Mauritius on March 9-11. No cyclone, just a depression.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94S IS PRESENTLY WEST OF MAURITIUS. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IT WILL MOVE CLOSE BY (OR RIGHT THROUGH) REUNION ISLAND

Tropical HALIBA Set To Strike Mauritius March 10, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 6, 2015

MODELS CONFUSED AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN The present situation is that two systems are hovering around in the South-West Indian Ocean. Cyclone Fifteen in the Mozambique Channel. And 94S is north-west of Mauritius.

The European Forecast Model says 94S will intensify further and move over Mauritius in two-three days. As a deep depression or a weak cyclone. It also says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will also hit Reunion and Mauritius but as a weak storm on March 12-13.

The GFS believes 94S will be a non-starter and fizzle out. It says Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Named by the JTWC) will climb over Madagascar and enter Mascareignes waters on March 11. But it will not affect Reunion or Mauritius much and move south harmlessly. The two major forecast systems are thus saying different things. Personally we believe the GFS forecast will prevail. Going by that it seems there will be no cyclone threat to Mauritius. Things will get clearer in a day or two.

 Tropical Cyclone Fifteen has formed in the Mozambique Channel. (When will it be named Haliba?). The JTWC predicts it is going to climb over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascreignes on March 11, 2015.

THE TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (HALIBA) ACCORDING TO JTWC. HALIBA WILL ENTER MASCAREIGNES WATERS ON MARCH 11, 2015

UPDATE: MARCH 5, 2015

 The Mascareignes is in for some real lousy weather from March 9 to 13, 2015. First, cyclone Haliba will form some hundred kilometers north-west of Mauritius on March 8 and then smash into the island the next day. Even as Haliba will be moving over Mauritius, storm 92S will saunter over Madagascar and enter the Indian Ocean south of Reunion on March 10-11. Both the storms will then move south. But windy, rainy weather for Mauritius and Reunion till March 13.

The wind speeds that Mauritius will face on March 9-10 as Haliba moves past depends on what part of the cyclone moves over the island. If the eye does so, expect winds of 80+ kph. If the periphery touches Mauritius, winds will be much less. 50+ kph.

Neither Haliba nor 92S (Possible cyclone Ikola) will be big cyclones. Not like Bansi or Eunice. They will have central pressure in the 990s Mb. It is possible that Ikola might remain a deep depression and not be named a tropical cyclone. It all depends on what the Met folks in Reunion decide.

But both these storms will bring windy, overcast, wet weather to the Mascareignes till the thirteenth.
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It is cyclone season in the southern hemisphere. South pacific has been relatively calm but the Southern Indian Ocean has been turbulent throwing out cyclones one after another including super cyclone Bansi.

But Mauritius and Reunion have been spared a direct hit by the succession of tropical storms. Come March 10, 2015 and this is going to change.

Indications are tropical cyclone Haliba will come visiting. Present forecasts say Haliba is going to hit these two islands directly on March 9 or 10. The ECMWF says March 9. GFS says March 10. The European Model further says the cyclone will intensify even more and hit Rodrigues island. The GFS spares the island.

Cyclone Haliba when it moves over Mauritius will not be a very powerful storm. Central minimum pressure of 993 Mb. But nothing to sneeze at. Winds of 80+ kph will blow over Mauritius on March 9-10. Reunion will get off lightly.

The storm will start as a low pressure area north-west of Mauritius and intensify into a cyclone and hit the island.

The ECMWF has further bad news. It predicts another cyclone IKOLA will clamber over southern Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes on March 13, 2015. The GFS does not agree on Ikola.

Whatever happens, it is certain the Mascareignes is going to face a tropical cyclone on March 10, 2015.

THE SEA WEST OF MAURITIUS IS DISTURBED. FROM THAT WILL ARISE CYCLONE HALIBA.