Tropical Storm CHEDZA will form on January 13, 2015 in the Mozambique Channel. In a day or two after that it will move into central Madagascar. It will not be a big storm.
Another tropical storm is coming to the Philippines. Around January 17, 2015. Typhoon Mekkhala will not be a very powerful storm; nothing like Hagupit. It will strike central Philippines. It might turn out to be even weaker; Just a depression. A big rain-maker.
The NAVGEM Model has a scary prediction. That 'Bansi' is going to take 3-4 days to move past Rodrigues Island. Strengthening all the time. Please take this forecast coming from NAVGEM, with a large pinch of salt.
The Canadian Model predicts the cyclone Bansi will form very close to Mauritius on January 11, 2015. It forecasts gustier storm in Mauritius than the GFS. The NAVGEM has the worst news. Storm will form on January 11 and Mascareignes (Worst affected: Rodrigues Island) will face 150+ kph winds. The US Navy Model goes onto say Bansi will turn later into a 936 Mb super cyclone.(Away from the Mascareignes).
GFS predicts a central pressure of 975 Mb. So-so storm. About 140 kph sustained winds. Special GFS says Bansi will intensify into a cyclone on January 13, after it starts leaving Mascareignes waters.
January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT
SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on January 13, 2015.
January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT
Latest forecasts say the storm will move through Rodrigues as it keeps intensifying. The effect on Mauritius and Reunion will be comparatively less. It will turn into a very big storm after it moves away south from Mascareignes.
January 8, 2015, 1200 Hours GMT
NAVGEM envisages Bansi turning into something close to a super cyclone. Thanks heavens it will intensify to a central pressure of 929 mb (Wow!) only after it leaves the Mascareignes far behind. Phew!
January 8, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT
Latest reliable forecasts say the upcoming cyclone will be a bigger threat to Rodrigues than Mauritius and Reunion. The storm will begin to form in the next 48 hours.
January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT
The Canadian Model says Bansi will form tomorrow (January 9, 2015) morning (Mauritius Time). It has a scary story for Philippines. A massive typhoon will hit the country on January 16, 2015. Though other major models say it will be just a depression hitting central Philippines.
January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT
The US Navy's NAVGEM has a terrifying prediction. That Bansi will be a massive storm with central pressure of 956 mb and winds of 170+ kph. It will hit Rodrigues Island head-on.
January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT
Another possibility that the present low NW of Mauritius moves east in the next 4-5 days and THEN intensify into a storm. The storm in the Mozambique Channel forms first around January 12, 2015. If this happens the Mozambique Channel storm will become 'Bansi' and the 'Mauritius' storm becomes Chedza. In this scenario Chedza will affect the Rodrigues Island more than Mauritius and Reunion.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
Cyclone 'Bansi' Is coming. It exists as a low north-west of Mauritius now. In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical cyclone and move into Mauritius and La Reunion. That is on January 11-12. Rodrigues will be partially affected. Bansi will be a powerful storm with a central pressure of 985 mb. It will move over the Mascareignes for 48 hours intensifying all the time. After meeting the westerlies it is expected to transform into a extra-tropical cyclone.
January 8, 2014, 0230 Hours GMT
Both the GFS and Special GFS foretell a tropical storm near Papua New Guinea in a day or two. The former says it will move south into the Pacific, the latter predicts it will hit Queensland on January 13, 2015. CMC and NAVGEM support the formation of the cyclone on January 9.
January 7, 2015, 0500 Hours, GMT
Tropical Cyclone Bansi exists now as a low near the coast of NE Mozambique. It will intensify and move into Reunion and Mauritius on January 12, 2015. In sharp contrast Special GFS says the Bansi will form in the Mozambique Channel and move into Madagascar on January 13, 2015. See the storm forming and grow. LIVE.
January 7, 2015, 0430 Hours, GMT
Philippines is for another either a wet depression or a tropical storm around January 16, 2015.
January 7, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT
It is possible that the present low near Kimberley, NW Australia may not intensify into a cyclone but move inland just as a low pressure area. A rain-maker, nothing else. The NAVGEM, in contrast, says a big cyclone will form. The European model heartily agrees.
January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
The European Model (Followed by Meteo France) says a low will develop near Mauritius tomorrow which will intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi on January 11-12. The CMC is bullish on Bansi. Expects it to form on January 9. It envisages a powerful storm with 150 kph winds but the horror story (coming from CMC) should be taken with a pinch of salt. The NAVGEM foresees two cyclones forming in the next 4 days. Bansi in the Mozambique Channel day after tomorrow and Chedza near Mauritius on January 12, 2015. Whew!
January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
The latest GFS forecast hints at the cyclone in the SW Indian Ocean developing near the coast of SE Madagascar on January 12, 2015, and then moving in a SW direction, thus not affecting the Mascareignes.
January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT
The Canadian model CMC has a horrifying prediction for the folks in the Mascareignes. It says the upcoming cyclone is going to be a large diameter storm. About 300-350 kilometres! Even worse follows. The storm is going to move over the area very slowly. That means real bad news.
January 6, 2015. 1200 Hours GMT