Cyclone Eunice Will Not Affect Mauritius, Reunion: Some Effect On Rodrigues Island

CYCLONE EUNICE WILL NOT AFFECT MAURITIUS, REUNION. SOME INFLUENCE ON RODRIGUES: It is going to be a big storm. If JTWC is to be believed, in the next two days it will turn into a cyclone with winds of 220 kph. We believe it will easily be in excess of 150 kph. The storm is 1040 kilometers North-east of Mauritius now (0615 Hours GMT, January 28, 2015). Wind speed is 90 kph.

RELEVANT TO FOLKS IN THE MASCAREIGNES: Cyclone Eunice, however big it will turn out to be, will not affect Mauritius or Reunion. Some showers in Mauritius tomorrow morning perhaps. Otherwise nothing. Rodrigues Island will be somewhat affected. But not in the measure of Bansi. There will be incessant light rains in the island for the next 48 hours, with maximum winds of 50 kph. Not more. That is because Cyclone Eunice is not going to come close to Rodrigues Island. Only the outer periphery will affect.

The cyclone will move first in a SE direction then in a easterly direction. The satellite image below was taken at 0530 hours GMT today.

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 28, 2015



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97S Turns Into Tropical Cyclone 8S (Diamondra): 98S To Become One On January 29, 2015

Update: 1430 Hours GMT, January 27, 2015

TROPICAL CYCLONE 8S HAS BEEN OFFICIALLY NAMED CYCLONE DIAMONDRA.: It lies now at 18.39 Degrees South, 78 Degrees East. Sustained winds are 75 kph. It is expected to move in a south-west direction. There is no possibility of it coming in the direction of Mascareignes. Right now it is hundreds of kilometers away and it is going to stay that way. Just for the record, Diamondra is going to be no Bansi, but nothing to sneeze at. In 48 hours it will be throwing out winds in excess of 125 kph.

Cyclone Diamondra. WV satellite image take n at 1330 hours GMT, January 27, 2015
Update: 0330 hours GMT, January 27, 2015


As expected 97S has obliged and turned into tropical cyclone 8S. That is what the JTWC calls it. It should soon be christened DIAMONDRA. Another two days and 98S will also turn into a cyclone. Looking at their forecast paths it seems likely that none of them will affect Mascareignes. Though the European (ECMWF) Model says cyclone 98S' (Eunice) periphery might influence Rodrigues Island.

Cyclone 8S presently lies about 1800 kilometers east of Mauritius. It is expected to intensify in the coming days and move in a south-easterly direction. 

In the next two days 98S too will turn into a tropical cyclone. It will be named Eunice. Presently 98S lies about 700 kilometers north-east of Mauritius. On January 29 it will intensify and move south-easterly. It's outer periphery might affect Rodrigues Island on January 30, 2015.

0000 HRS GMT JANUARY 27, 2015. THIS INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN SHOWS CYCLONE 8S AND ALSO STORM 98S WHICH WILL TURN INTO A CYCLONE ON JANUARY 29-30.

CYCLONE 8S (DIAMONDRA?) TRACK FORECAST BY JTWC ISSUED AT 2100 HRS, JANUARY 26, 2015




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1/24/2014 Update: Southern Indian Ocean To Throw Up Cyclones DIAMONDRA And EUNICE Soon

Update 0730 Hours GMT, January 24, 2015

We had already warned a few days ago that the southern Indian Ocean was in ferment and was going to spawn a cyclone or two soon. Latest forecasts say this will happen by the end of the month. Tropical cyclones Diamondra and Eunice are coming soon in this ocean.


Diamondra will be formed first. About 1000 kilometers ENE of Rodrigues Island on January 28, 2014. In a day or two it will intensify and move in a general south-easterly direction. Later it will move south. At its strongest it will have sustained winds of 100+ kph. Central pressure of 980. Its path will be such that it will not affect any inhabited islands. Mauritius, Reunion nor Rodrigues will not be affected by Cyclone Diamondra.

Cyclone Eunice will form next, two days later a few hundred kilometers north of Mauritius. It will start intensify and move eastwards first then in a SE direction. On February its periphery will lash Rodrigues Island. Eunice at its zenith will throw out winds of 120+ kph. Mauritius or Reunion are not expected to be affected. But it is too early to say that with any certainty. Please keep reading our updates.

These two cyclones will be spawned from the present three low pressure areas that are bobbing around in the south Indian Ocean. One of them (NOAA calls it 96S) is near Mascareignes and under its influence rains are lashing the islands.(Please see map below). This 96S presently lies about 600 kilometers north of Mauritius.


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Breaking Forecast News. XWF-WEATHER: January 2015


Update: 0500 Hours GMT, January 6, 2015

97S MAY REMAIN A DEPRESSION: 98S LIKELY TO BE CYCLONE PROSPECT: Latest forecasts indicate that 97S may turn out to be just a depression. The real Invest (Storm) to watch is 98S. It lies now about a 1000 kilometers north-east of Mauritius. It is expected to turn into a tropical cyclone on January 29, 2015. This storm is likely to affect Rodrigues Island.


Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 25, 2015

BOTH CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN MAY FORM SIMULTANEOUSLY ON JANUARY 28. The cyclone that will be born nearer to Mascareignes will be more powerful. The one that will rise a few hundred kilometers to the east of the former cyclone will not affect Mascareignes.  Since both cyclones will be born almost together it is difficult to say which will be Diamondra and which will be Eunice. The NOAA forecast says one of them will hit Rodrigues Island directly. But the European Model disagrees and predicts none of them will influence the Mascareignes.

Sidelights: January 25, 2015: The Canadian Model has an interesting prediction. The low pressure 96S that is currently hovering around north of Mauritius and Reunion will slip into the Mozambique Channel, intensify, jump over Madagascar and hit Mascareignes on February 3, 2015. Don't forget the pinch of salt.

The NAVGEM has another interesting forecast. The three lows that are now present in the Southern Indian Ocean will all turn into cyclones. The third one will hit Rodrigues island on January 30, 2015. According to it Mauritius and Reunion are safe. Salt! Salt!


Update: 0600 Hours GMT, January 24, 2015

TWO CYCLONES, DIAMONDRA AND EUNICE TO FORM IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IN NEXT TEN DAYS. The ocean is in ferment and various forecast models are throwing out mind-boggling possibilities. One of them even says three cyclones will form and two of them join together (Fujiwhara Interaction). But that seems unlikely. What is possible is that two cyclones will form in the next ten days. Cyclone Diamondra will form first. But that will not affect Mascareignes. The second storm, Eunice, is likely to do so. Keep in touch for updates.

Some interesting tidbits from the Canadian Forecast Model. It says three cyclones will form in the coming days, Two of them will not affect the Mascareignes. The third will form just north of Mauritius on January 30, 2015, and will affect the island on February 2. But this model is not as reliable as others. The NAVGEM model predicts two cyclones, one of which will be a monster. But none of them will affect the Mascareignes.

Update: 0700 Hours GMT, January 21, 2015

A CYCLONE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN on January 26, 2015. in an area about 1200 kilometers ENE of Mauritius. It will not be as powerful as Bansi. Present forecasts indicate that it will not affect Mauritius and Reunion, but may have some influence on Rodrigues.  The European Model agrees that a cyclone will form but it says it will not affect even Rodrigues. We have to wait and watch what happens.

Forecast Update: 1530 Hrs GMT, January 19, 2015.
CYCLONES DIAMONDRA AND EUNICE ON THE HORIZON?
It is early days but there are indications that possibly two cyclones may be born in the South Indian Ocean in the coming fortnight. We will keep you informed. The area of the ocean about 1500 kilometers north-east of Mascareignes is in ferment right now. Whatever happens in the coming days will happen there. The disturbed area is likely to throw up a storm. How strong that is to be seen. But something is definitely brewing out there.

Present forecasts say it will be deep depression that will form on January 28 that will move south-easterly. If that happens it will not affect Mascareignes. It is still ten days to go. And we will keep a watch on the emerging situation.

The suspect area. Something will happen here by the end of January 2015

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MEKKHALA TYPHOON Will Bring Heavy Rains To North-East Philippines Till Sunday

SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 0642 HOURS GMT SHOWS MEKKHALA MOVING INTO PHILIPPINES
January 18, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT: Latest Update


Typhoon Mekkhala will bring heavy rainfall to Samar, Bicol, and Calabarzon, Philippines in the next 36 hours till evening of January 18, 2015.

It lies presently about 200 kilometers from Borongan on Samar Island. Wind speeds are about 100 kph gusts up to 120 kph. But is already weakening. Within the next two hours it will move inland into north Samar.  By tomorrow morning it will move into Calabarzon. Mekkhala will start dissipating by the time it reaches Luzon. By tomorrow evening, that is Sunday, it will be history. It will not affect Manila significantly except for moderate rains on Sunday.

It will bring heaviest rains in North Samar, Bikol and Calabarzon. Mekkhala is a weak storm which will just bring some rains in certain parts of the country (mentioned above) and then disintegrate. But expect winds of 50-60 kph in Bikol, Calabarzon and parts of Mimiropa till today late night.

THIS 0530 HOURS GMT, JANUARY  17, 2015, IMAGE SHOWS MEKKHALA IS ALREADY BREAKING UP

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How We Covered Cyclone Bansi (Warts and all): In Brief

Cyclone coming to Mascarene Islands in South West Indian Ocean soon. Major forecast models unanimous. Read exhaustive analysis.
January 5, 2015


This area in the SW Indian Ocean will throw up a cyclone in the next few days - January 5, 2015
Tropical Cyclone Bansi exists now as a low near the coast of NE Mozambique. It will intensify and move into Reunion and Mauritius on January 12, 2015. Special GFS says the Bansi will form in the Mozambique Channel and move into Madagascar on January 13, 2015.
January 7, 2015, 0430 Hours, GMT

Cyclone 'Bansi' Is coming. It exists as a low north-west of Mauritius now.
In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical cyclone and move into Mauritius and La Reunion. That is on January 11-12. Rodrigues will be partially affected. Bansi will be a powerful storm with a central pressure of 985 mb. It will move over the Mascareignes for 48 hours intensifying all the time. After meeting the westerlies it is expected to transform into a extra-tropical cyclone.
January 8, 2014, 0230 Hours GMT

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Cyclone Bansi to form tomorrow evening (Sunday). It will move right through Mauritius and Reunion. It will hit the islands on Monday (January 12, 2015) and take two-three days to pass over them. The cyclone will be intensifying all the time.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Because of Cyclone Bansi Mauritius and Reunion will face gale of 140 kph gusting up to 180 kph January 14, 2015. It will be very windy from Monday to Wednesday. Wind will be accompanied with torrential rainfall.
January 10, 2015, 0400 Hours, GMT


Satellite image of SW Indian Ocean. A tropical Cyclone Bansi is brewing in the waters near Mauritius. Image taken at 0430 hours GMT, January 10, 2015.
SATELLITE IMAGE TAKEN AT 1400 HRS, JANUARY 10, 2015 OF SW INDIAN OCEAN
The European Forecast Model, ECMWF, has bad news. It envisages Bansi intensifying more rapidly even as it passes Mauritius.A central minimum pressure of 941 Mb (And dropping!).
This model thinks Bansi is going to be a very big, bad storm. Though it too predicts the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. No direct hit anywhere. But a storm with 941 Mb pressure spells very violent winds. In short, bad news.
January 11, 2015, 0600 hours GMT

92S will intensify into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Monday). It is expected to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island, intensifying all the time. Mauritius will be most affected. Reunion will get off comparatively lightly. Mauritius may be lucky enough for experiencing only the periphery of the upcoming cyclone and not the 'eye'.
January 11, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT

Storm 92S is intensifying. Its NE quadrant has winds of 53 kph. It has more or less remained stationary in the last 12 hours. It is now about 500 kilometers NE of Mauritius and Reunion. The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has started monitoring Storm 92S.
January 11, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT


Infra-Red Satellite image of Earth showing cyclone Bansi forming in the SW Indian Ocean. Image taken at 0300 hours, GMT, January 11, 2015.
NOAA says the depression 92S in SW Indian Ocean has intensified into a tropical cyclone with winds of 35 knots (65 kph). It calls it TC '5S'. When will the Met folks at RSMC Reunion name it Bansi?
January 11, 2015, 0830 hours GMT

The cyclone in SW Indian Ocean '5S' has been officially named BANSI. 
January 11, 2015, 0900 hours GMT

BANSI: A POSSIBLE SUPER CYCLONE?
According to the present forecast track/path Bansi is going to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. So only the edges of the storm will affect these areas. But even then winds of 120+ kph can be expected. Also the cyclone may change direction any time. Fluid situation. We have to closely follow the latest forecasts from the computer models. Bansi is expected to intensify very rapidly. Also the European Model says Bansi is going to move right through Rodrigues Island. If so the place is in for a real hammering. Presently the GFS and ECMWF differ slightly on the track. By January 14 it will be whipping winds at 200 kph which will increase as it moves along. A possible super cyclone.
January 11, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT

THE EUROPEAN MODEL ECMWF HAS BAD NEWS for folks in the Rodrigues Island. According to it Cyclone Bansi is going to move right through it on January 15-16 with 150+ kph winds. Mauritius and Reunion will get off lightly.
1630 Hours GMT, January 11, 2015

LATEST FORECAST BY REUNION MET GUYS AT 0000 HRS GMT, TODAY expects the cyclone to rapidly intensify into a storm with winds of 170 kph, gusts up to 215 kph in the next 24 hours. The 170 kph we talk here are "sustained winds" over a 10 minutes period. The Americans define sustained winds over a 1 minute period so the figures will be higher. That means a Category 3 (Or 4) hurricane. Believe me, this is a very very windy storm. The Reunion Met further sticks to its earlier prediction that Bansi will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues on January 15, 2015. We have to analyse the track by seeing the forecasts of the GFS Model and the US Navy's JTWC. These guys are generally very accurate.
0200 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015


0200 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 12, 2015. INFRA-RED IMAGE CYCLONE BANSI The eye is clearly visible. Sign of a powerful storm.
THE SPECIAL GFS FORECAST MODEL DIFFERS FROM GFS, ECMWF AND JTWC ON BANSI'S FUTURE TRACK. It predicts the cyclone is going to move east over the next two-three and then make a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on Thursday. If this happens Mauritius will escape relatively unscathed, but Rodrigues is in for a very bad time. Howling winds of 200+ kph for 2-3 days as the storm passes right through. The good news is the other major models say the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. Let us see how the Special GFS forecast fares as from January 14, 2015, this is going to become the official GFS Model. The older GFS will cease to exist.
0400 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015 

CYCLONE BANSI IS NOW 280 KILOMETERS NORTH OF MAURITIUS. The storm has moved east in the last 12 hours. Our estimate is that sustained winds are about 150 kph. Gusts would be 200 kph. Mauritius is now experiencing sustained winds of 60-70 kph, gusts up to 90 kph. The winds there are blowing from the east presently. The exact position of the cyclone now is 17.52* South, 57.37* East. The storm's eye is clearly visible. The diameter of the eye is 32 kilometers. The center of the storm, where there is deceptive calm. Hardly any winds. Just a gentle breeze of 6 kph. Little clouds. Someone in the eye of the storm would feel as if there was no storm. Perhaps even the sun may be visible. But that area of the eye is the most dangerous place in the world to be in. Just a few kilometers all around are some of the most destructive winds, the so-called "Eye Wall". The winds there are the strongest. Howling at 150-200 kph.
0200 Hours GMT, January 13, 2015. 

GFS AND SPECIAL GFS SAY RODRIGUES ISLAND WILL SUFFER A NEAR DIRECT HIT FROM BANSI: The other models (ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM) say cyclone Bansi will pass between Mauritius and Rodrigues. In their forecasts the GFS and SPECIAL GFS disagree. They predict the storm will move eastward more than what the other models say. It will start curving SE late. Which means Rodrigues will suffer a near direct hit. The eye of the cyclone will not pass right through but bad enough.Winds of 150+ kph. Gusts much more. Bansi will start moving into Rodrigues on late Thursday (January 15) evening and take 24 hours to pass through. If that happens Mauritius will get off far more lightly.
Present position of cyclone Bansi: 17.45*South, 57.48*East. 350 kilometers north of Mauritius
10.30 Hours GMT, January 13, 2015 

BANSI CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST DAY BUT WILL INTENSIFY TO A SUPER CYCLONE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. The winds have dropped (relatively) to 200 kph now. But it has started intensifying again. It will do so in the next 24 hours. By tomorrow morning (Mauritius Time) it will be a Category 5 hurricane again. Sustained winds of 260 kph (140 Knots, 162 mph ) Gusts up to a staggering 315 kph.(170 Knots, 195 mph).
January 14, 0200 Hours GMT, 2015 

RODRIGUES ISLAND IN FOR A DIRECT HIT BY CYCLONE BANSI:
Latest GFS forecasts confirm that the Rodrigues Island is going to get badly battered by the storm. Almost a direct hit. The storm will start moving into the island from 0600 hours GMT, January 15, that is tomorrow morning local time. The winds then will start getting progressively worse as the storm moves in. Winds well in excess of 150 kph will hammer the island for 48 hours till January 17, 2015. Gusts will be more. Bad news for folks on Rodrigues Island.
0400 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015 

THE FOCUS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO RODRIGUES ISLAND. BECAUSE IT STANDS IN THE PATH OF A POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE CALLED BANSI. This island is going to bear the brunt of the storm's fury. The cyclone presently lies 580 kilometers WNW of Rodrigues Island. On January 15, Thursday, evening local time Bansi will start knocking on the doorstep. Winds will start rising rapidly as the cyclone will start moving in. Soon 150-200 kph winds will start battering the island. The eye will pass on the next day morning. That is Friday morning. The howling will continue till late Friday evening after which the winds will slowly taper off. 24 hours of insane gale and torrential rainfall. Nature at its angriest. That is what is going to happen to Rodrigues Island in the next 48 hours.
1000 Hours, January 14, 2015.

CYCLONE BANSI HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. The winds according to our observation have dropped to 110 kph. We have to see what the forecast models say to know if the storm will keep weakening or is it just a lull before an intensification. The cyclone has come a little closer to Mauritius. 305 kilometers NNE of Mauritius. Central Minimum Pressure is 984 Mb.
1230 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015

LATEST GFS FORECAST FOR BANSI ISSUED AT 1200 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 14, 2015. It says it seems Mauritius is safe but Rodrigues Island is in for trouble. Cyclone Bansi might have weakened in the last six hours but it is going to start intensifying again soon. And Rodrigues Island is going to face an intensifying storm tomorrow night (Mauritius Local Time). The wind predictions we have outlined earlier still hold. Bansi is down but not out. It is going to intensify again. In conclusion, Mauritius seems safe from an direct hit. Rodrigues is in for it.
0330 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015. 


0630 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015. Cyclone Bansi. Notice Storm 93S in the Mozambique Channel.
EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015 

WHAT IS IN STORE FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND?
Winds on Rodrigues now: 60 kph. By midnight (Local Time) it will go up to 80 kph, gusts even more.They will drop to 60 kph at 4 AM (Local Time, Friday) but rise again to 90 kph in the morning. By noon they will start dropping again. After that they will keep dropping further till Saturday. But very heavy rains are expected in the next 36 hours on Rodrigues Island.
1530 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015 


1500 HOURS GMT JANUARY 15, 2015, INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGE OF CYCLONE BANSI
CYCLONE BANSI'S EYE HAS JUST MOVED PAST RODRIGUES ISLAND: After a period of deceptively low winds (40-50 kph) which lasted from 4 AM (Local Time) till now, the winds are picking up again. Current winds are 100 kph, gusting up to 150 kph.These will continue till noon today, after which they will gradually decrease to 60 kph at 7 PM in the evening. They will drop to 40-45 kph by tomorrow (January 17, 2015) morning. There will be cloudy weather in Rodrigues for the next 3-4 days and the wind will die down gradually. Heavy showers are expected till today late nigh. The rain will then slowly decrease.
0400 Hours, GMT, January 16, 2015 

BANSI IS MOVING AWAY FROM RODRIGUES ISLAND:
Now, that is at 0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015 (1330 Hrs MUT) cyclone Bansi is moving away from Rodrigues Island. It is 250 kilometers ESE of the island and moving away. But 60 kph winds are still lashing the place as the outer diameter of the storm is still on Rodrigues. The rainfall will ease off by late evening.
0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015
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Cyclone CHEDZA Will Not Affect Mauritius Or Reunion

Update: 0600 Hours GMT, January 20, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN: It had weakened in the last 12 hours but is intensifying again. Its central minimum pressure is 990 Mb. It is expected to move in a south-easterly direction until it disintegrates under the influence of westerlies and the low sea temperature.

Update: 0400 Hours GMT, January 19, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA HAS MOVED RAPIDLY SOUTH OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS: Let us reiterate: No threat whatsoever to Mascareignes from Chedza. In the last 3 hours it has moved south away from Reunion. It lies 440 kilometer SW of Reunion presently. We wrote this update because the JTWC has stopped mentioning it in its bulletins. A very weak storm Mekkhala finds a mention, but not a more powerful cyclone Chedza. A little mystifying. Also if other websites are to be believed Chedza's speed dropped to 35 kph at 0000 hrs, today. Our observations differ. Cyclone Chedza was throwing out a robust 70-80 kph at that time.(Presently it has sustained speed of 90-100 kph). Mystifying. In conclusion, Chedza is still a powerful storm and it is intensifying as it moves south.


0300 HOURS GMT, JAN 19, 2015. AN INTENSIFYING CHEDZA CYCLONE

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 18, 2015
CYCLONE CHEDZA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-EAST. NO EFFECT ON MASCAREIGNES.
The storm  lies 430 kilometers SSW of Reunion. Wind speed is 80 kph. Central pressure is 993 Mb.(Not a very powerful storm: A weakening Bansi still has 979 Mb). It is expected to strengthen to a 110 kph storm after a day ot two. In the coming hours it will move south first and then south-west. Chedza will hardly have any influence on the Mascareignes. Some clouds on Reunion. May be a drizzle. Weather will soon clear up.
CYCLONE CHEDZA IR SAT. IMAGE: 0600 HOURS, JANUARY 18, 2015

Presently (0500 GMT, January 16, 2015) it lies 200 west of the coast of central Madagascar. It is already whipping up sustained winds of 75 kph. By tomorrow evening it will have completed its journey over Madagascar and enter the waters of Mascareignes. It will have weakened considerably by then. It's fuel, warm waters of the sea, being denied to it as it clambered over Madgascar.  But by the night of January 17, the defatigable storm will regain cyclone speeds of 65+ kph.

By the evening of January 18, it will be blowing winds of 80 kph, gusts up to 120 kph. It will closest to Reunion on January 19, 2015. About 350 kilometers. After that suddenly Chedza will abruptly change direction (Fortunately for the Mascareignes). It will start moving south.

Make no mistake. Cyclone Chedza will not be storm to sneeze at. On Tuesday, January 20, it will have sustained winds of 110 kph, gusts up to 140 kph. It will continue moving in a south-easterly direction and embrace the powerful Westerlies, which will break it apart.

January 16, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT

JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CHEDZA CYCLONE
An image of SW Indian Ocean showing two cyclones, BANSI and CHEDZA. The lighter area on the image showing the heaviest rainfall. (0700 HRS GMT, January 16, 2015). One fears that the two cyclones do not unite to form a giant cyclone. FUJIWHARA EFFECT.
WHAT WE HAD SAID EARLIER ABOUT CHEDZA...

CYCLONE CHEDZA MAY BE A 80 KPH STORM. More bad news for folks in the Mascareignes. Latest GFS forecast says storm 93S, which expected to come over from Mozambique Channel, may turn out stronger than earlier expected A 80 kph storm. It is too early to be sure but a storm is coming; that is for sure.
1030 Hours, January 14, 2015

STORM 93S IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS INTENSIFYING TOO. Possibly future cyclone Chedza is also intensifying too. It is throwing winds of 55 kph. This 93S is the storm that is going to jump over Madagascar and come to Mascareignes after Bansi goes away. 93S will be a smaller storm, may be not even a cyclone, just a depression. But a big rain-maker
0730 Hours GMT, January 14, 2015

ANOTHER STORM (ALBEIT A WEAK ONE) WILL FOLLOW BANSI INTO MASCAREIGNES. It is said troubles come in a pack. A spot of another bad news for folks in the Mascreignes. Just after cyclone Bansi leaves its shores, another storm will clamber over Madagascar and enter the area. The storm (A depression or cyclone CHEDZA) will move over Reunion and Mauritius around January 19, 2015. It might not be another cyclone but will prove to be an unwelcome rain-maker storm. Strangely the storm will form in the Mozambique Channel and then move over into the Indian Ocean proper literally jumping over central Madagascar.
1300 Hours GMT, January 12, 2015 


It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.

January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT  
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Future Possible Super Cyclone Bansi Has Been Born As 92S In SW Indian Ocean




Update: December 9, 2015

The monster has been spawned. Possible super storm 'Bansi' (NOAA calls it 92S) was born yesterday evening just a few hundred kilometers north-west of the Mascareignes. It lies now (At 0000 Hours, GMT, December 9, 2015) at 18.9 South and 53.9 East. Pressure 1007 Mb. An innocuous little 'low'. In a day or two it will start transforming into a massive super-cyclone, if some forecast models are to be believed.

The storm has been born very near Mauritius and Reunion. That is worrying as we have already discussed before. There is little response time between the official storm warning and the actual cyclone hit. Anyway.

What is frightening is that the normally reticent ECMWF Model predicts Bansi will be a cyclone with a central pressure of 932 Mb. A massive powerful storm with a diameter that would cover the entire peninsular India. Big. Big. The lower the central pressure the more intense the storm. Simply put, it mean stronger winds. Real bad news.

The only good news is that Bansi will turn into a monster only after it leaves the Mascareignes. Some consolation. Latest GFS forecasts say when Bansi will be moving over Mauritius it have winds in excess of 150 kph.. Yeah. The latest forecast bulletin, issued at 0000 hours GMT today, says Bansi is going to hit Mauritius head on.

Time of impact? Morning of January 13, 2015. Coming Tuesday morning.

The storm will turn into a tropical cyclone on January 12, 2015. Monday. Three days to go. We suggest that instead of waiting for the official confirmation of Bansi, start making preparations for a 150 kph storm in the coming days. That includes folks in Mauritius, Reunion and Rodrigues Island. Because the cyclone may make a direct hit anywhere.

Cyclone Chedza

SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on january 13, 2015.


Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

Infra-Red Images of 92S taken at 0300 hours GMT, today (January 9, 2015)
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The Lack of Information Can Be Perilous.


XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: CYCLONE BANSI MOVING PAST MAURITIUS ON JANUARY 13, 2015
I just logged into the MMS site out of curiosity and clicked on "Cyclone Warning for Mauritius" link. I got a "No Cyclone Warning". It stumps us. Weather charts show two dangerous "low" bobbing around in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another just a hundred kilometers north west of Mauritius. The BBC World Weather warned us yesterday that a storm may form in the area soon.

And we get just a "No Cyclone Warning".

That is worrying. Most model forecasts say  a tropical cyclone or two may form soon in the area. In the next 72-96 hours. And even  more worrying is some of these forecasts say the tropical storm over the Mascareignes will intensify over the area and move very slowly. In other words, the storm is going to grow just over the skies of Mauritius. Perilous stuff.

We know computer forecast models can sometimes go off the mark completely. And the last thing every body wants is to create a panic. But consider the facts. All the forecasts models are predicting a tropical cyclone in the Mascreignes. Some say it will be a weak storm some say it may turn into a super cyclone. But the fact remains, a cyclone is very likely.

The folks in the Mascreignes and other parts of south east Africa deserve a mention that a storm may be coming. Better a good scare than be surprised.

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE

This is the area which is going to spawn a cyclone soon

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Seas Around Australia: The Storms That Were Not To Be

A low pressure lies over north west Australia near the Kimberley Plateau at Saint Georges Ranges. Presently it is throwing up winds of 65 kph in the adjoining seas. But it has not been declared a cyclone. The reason? Firstly it lies inland, so it will not intensify. Secondly it is a borderline cyclone. It has just attained speeds of 65 kph, but only in the sea. Inland they drop drastically to about 30 kph. Hardly cyclone standards. Now if this system had remained over the Indian Ocean it would have been a raging storm.

Anyway.

Nevertheless this system will bring water to some of the most driest areas of Australia. That is welcome. In the next few days it will move in a SSE direction until it reaches Adelaide in South Australia on January 12, 2015. Just draw a line connecting Adelaide and Derby. All these areas will receive rains.  The region between Great sandy Desert and Tanami Desert, Macdonnell Ranges (Alice Springs), Ayers Rock, eastern Victorian Desert and of course the part of Southern Australia around Adelaide.

Another potential cyclone that will not bloom is the 'low' bobbing around in the Coral Sea near Cooktown, Queensland. It will meander around that part of coastal Australia till January 12, 2015. It may flare up briefly throwing winds of about 70 kph in some parts its periphery but it will perhaps not be christened and honored as a tropical storm. But it will bring rains to the entire eastern coast of Queensland.

The upcoming storm that hovers near Papua New Guinea will not disappoint. It is going to intensify into a tropical storm on January 11, 2015 after it leaves the shores of Guinea and head south into the Pacific. It will affect Vanuatu and New Caledonia on January 13. Cyclone Lam, perhaps?
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Cyclone Bansi Moving Into Rodrigues Island

BANSI IS MOVING AWAY FROM RODRIGUES ISLAND: Now, that is at 0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015 (1330 Hrs MUT) cyclone Bansi is moving away from Rodrigues Island. It is 250 kilometers ESE of the island and moving away. But 60 kph winds are still lashing the place as the outer diameter of the storm is still on Rodrigues. The rainfall will ease off by late evening.
0930 Hours GMT, January 16, 2015

CYCLONE BANSI'S EYE HAS JUST MOVED PAST RODRIGUES ISLAND: After a period of deceptively low winds (40-50 kph) which lasted from 4 AM (Local Time) till now, the winds are picking up again. Current winds are 100 kph, gusting up to 150 kph.These will continue till noon today, after which they  will gradually decrease to 60 kph at 7 PM in the evening. They will drop to 40-45 kph by tomorrow (January 17, 2015) morning. There will be cloudy weather in Rodrigues for the next 3-4 days and the wind will die down gradually. Heavy showers are expected till today late nigh. The rain will then slowly decrease.
0430 Hours, GMT, January 16, 2015


0300 HOURS GMT, JANUARY 16, 2015.. INFRA-RED IMAGE CYCLONE BANSI

LATEST POSITION OF CYCLONE BANSI NOW: Current location of storm: 18.25*South, 61.40*East. Current sustained wind speed: 145 kph, gusts up to 180 kph. Bansi is 270 kilometers NW of Rodrigues Island. Winds on Rodrigues now: 60 kph. By midnight (Local Time) it will go up to 80 kph, gusts even more.They will drop to 60 kph at 4 AM (Local Time, Friday) but rise again to 90 kph in the morning. By noon they will start dropping again. After that they will keep dropping further till Saturday. But very heavy rains are expected in the next 36 hours on Rodrigues Island.
1530 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015

EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge. 

We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015


1500 HOURS GMT JANUARY 15, 2015, SATELLITE IMAGE OF CYCLONE BANSI

THE JTWC EXPECTS CYCLONE BANSI TO BE A SUPER CYCLONE SOON: Bad news from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for folks in the Rodrigues Island. In its latest bulletin issued at 0900 Hours GMT, today (January 15, 2015), it has a scary prediction That Cyclone Bansi which had weakened greatly yesterday (Leading to the Local Met saying "No Cyclone") is intensifying very rapidly and is gonna become a Category 5 hurricane or a super Cyclone, which ever you like it. In a few hours, even as we write this. And that it is going to stay a super cyclone for another 3 days, till January 18, 2015.The JTWC says Bansi has an eye of 85 kilometers. Translate that as big, big trouble for Rodrigues Island. At its peak, the JTWC foretells, Bansi is gonna have howling winds of 270 kph, gusting up to 320 kph. Nature at its nastiest. Folks in Rodrigues: Please take all precautions and take care. We would like to add here that we do not support this prediction. We think the winds will be in the range of 100 kph to 140 kph. It depends on which quadrant of the cyclone passes through Rodrigues. Some are more windier than others. The nightmare prediction from JTWC should be taken with a pinch of salt.
1030 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015


0900 HRS, GMT, JAN 15, 2015 JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOR CYCLONE BANSI. JTWC BELIEVES BANSI IS GOING TO TURN INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AGAIN


EXPECTED CONDITIONS IN RODRIGUES ISLAND WHEN CYCLONE BANSI HITS TOMORROW: 6 meters waves are already crashing on Rodrigues. They may go up to 12 meters tomorrow morning. Winds of 80-100 kph gusts up to 140 kph. Sustained winds now are already 60 kph. They will go up to 90 kph in the night. At about 4 AM (Local Time) the winds will drop suddenly. This low wind period will go on till 8 AM (Local Time) Friday, as the "eye" of the cyclone will move by. After 8 AM tomorrow the howling will start again. This will go on for another 6-8 hours after which the winds and rains will slowly start to die down. Another 2-3 more days after that. And by rain we mean torrential rain. A deluge.

We have given a very conservative estimate of expected winds and rainfall. The JTWC has a horror story prediction of 270 kph winds with gusts up to 320 kph. The JTWC believes Bansi is going to turn into a super cyclone again.
0930 Hrs GMT, January 15, 2015


CYCLONE BANSI CURRENT STATUS: Position: 18.34*South, 61.19*East. 278 kilometers WNW of Rorigues Island. Sustained Wind Speed: 120 kph, gusts 160 kph.
1130 Hours GMT, January 15, 2015

THE WINDS in Mauritius have already started picking up. Not because Bansi is moving but because it is intensifying. The winds will continuously get worse as Bansi slowly approaches and starts intensifying at the same time.  The winds will be worst on January 14, 2015 (Wednesday) as the cyclone passes by. They will start tapering off from January 15. Reunion will get off lightly. Mauritius may get winds in excess of 100 kph. Gusting more.
1130 Hours GMT, January 11, 2015

XWF-WEATHER FORECAST MAP: JAN 14-15, 2015. CYCLONE BANSI PASSES MAURITIUS

POSITION AT 1100 HRS GMT, JANUARY 11, 2015: 16.95*S, 54.34*E. About 600 kilometers NNE of Reunion. It has moved in a ENE (East-North-East) direction. See the LIVE Map
1100 HRS GMT, January 11, 2015

According to the present forecast track/path Bansi is going to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. So only the edges of the storm will affect these areas. But even then winds of 120+ kph can be expected. Also the cyclone may change direction any time. Fluid situation. We have to closely follow the latest forecasts from the computer models. Bansi is expected to intensify very rapidly. Also the European Model says Bansi is going to move right through Rodrigues Island. If so the place is in for a real hammering. Presently the GFS and ECMWF differ slightly on the track. One thing both the models agree on is that this cyclone is going to intensify very rapidly in the next 48 hours. By January 14 it will be whipping winds at 200 kph which will increase as it moves along. A possible super cyclone.
January 11, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT

The cyclone in SW Indian Ocean '5S' has been officially named BANSI.
January 11, 2015, 0900 hours GMT

NOAA says the depression 92S in SW Indian Ocean has intensified into a tropical cyclone with winds of 35 knots (65 kph). It calls it  TC '5S'. When will the Met  folks at RSMC Reunion name it Bansi?
January 11, 2015, 0830 hours GMT

CYCLONE BANSI, 0900 HOURS GMT, JAN 11, 2015




JANUARY 11, 2015, 0600 HRS GMT, CYCLONE BANSI WATER VAPOR IMAGE

The European Forecast Model, ECMWF, has bad news. It envisages Bansi intensifying more rapidly even as it passes Mauritius.A central minimum pressure of 941 Mb (And dropping!). This model thinks Bansi is going to be a very big, bad storm. Though it too predicts the storm will move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island. No direct hit anywhere. But a storm with 941 Mb pressure spells very violent winds. In short, bad news. Mauritius and Rodrigues Island will be most affected. Especially Rodrigues.
January 11, 2015, 0600 hours GMT

Infra-Red Satellite image of Earth showing cyclone Bansi forming in the SW Indian Ocean. Image taken at 0300 hours, GMT, January 11, 2015.

92S will intensify into a tropical cyclone tomorrow (Monday). It is expected to move between Mauritius and Rodrigues Island, intensifying all the time. Mauritius will be most affected. Reunion will get off comparatively lightly. Mauritius may be lucky enough for experiencing only the periphery of the upcoming cyclone and not the 'eye'.
January 11, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT

Storm 92S is intensifying. It's central pressure is now slipping below 1000 Mb. Its NE quadrant has winds of 53 kph. It has more or less remained stationary in the last 12 hours. It is now about 500 kilometers NE of Mauritius and Reunion. The US Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has started monitoring Storm 92S.
January 11, 2015, 0500 Hours GMT

The present position of Mozambique Channel depression (Future Chedza) is 16.75* S, 42.76*E. 500 kilometers SSE of Mozambique City. Winds: 45 kph in the areas north of the storm.
January 10, 2015,  1400 Hours GMT

The present position of Storm 92S (Future Bansi, SW Indian Ocean): 17.20 Degrees South, 53.29 Degrees East. About 500 kilometers north-west of Mauritius and Reunion. Wind speed is 45 kph.Winds in Mauritius now are about 30 kph. Reunion: 16 kph.
January 10, 2015, 1330 Hours, GMT

LATEST TRACK FORECAST ACCORDING TO METEO-FRANCE FOR UPCOMING CYCLONE BANSI
TRACK FORECAST FOR BANSI CYCLONE ACCORDING TO VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS. THE 'GEM' IS THE CANADIAN MODEL. OTHERS ARE THE NOAA'S GFS AND US NAVY'S NAVGEM




SATELLITE IMAGE OF 92S AT 0300 HRS, JANUARY 11, 2015
The European Model has bad news. According to latest forecasts issued, Cyclone Bansi is going to intensify very rapidly after forming. Even when it will be passing over Mascareignes it's central pressure will fall by an astounding 50 Mb in 48 hours! Some very rapid intensification here. Bad news for Mauritius. Later when it leaves Mascareignes, it's central pressure will fall to 907 Mb! Bansi is gonna be a very powerful storm. In the league of cyclones Hondo (2007-8), Edzani (2009-10) and Bruce (2013-14). They had central minimum pressures of 906, 910 and 912 Mb respectively. They had maximum sustained winds of 215, 220 and 230 kph respectively All these were SW Indian Ocean cyclones
January 10, 2015, 1100 Hours, GMT

SATELLITE WATER-VAPOR IMAGE OF 92S TAKEN AT 1200 HRS GMT, JAN 10, 2015
Because of Cyclone Bansi Mauritius and Reunion will face gale of 140 kph gusting up to 180 kph January 14, 2015. It will be very windy from Monday to Wednesday. Wind will be accompanied with torrential rainfall.
January 10, 2015, 0400 Hours, GMT

Tropical Storm CHEDZA will form on January 13, 2015 in the Mozambique Channel. In a day or two after that it will move into central Madagascar. It will not be a big storm.
January 10, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

Another tropical storm is coming to the Philippines. Around January 17, 2015. Typhoon Mekkhala will not be a very powerful storm; nothing like Hagupit. It will strike central Philippines. It might turn out to be even weaker; Just a depression. A big rain-maker.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT


The European Model predicts Bansi will affect Mauritius more than Reunion. When it passes over the Mascareignes it will not be very powerful. Once it moves into the Indian Ocean it will turn into a very big storm throwing winds of 200 kph. A diameter of about 1200 kilometers.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

Cyclone Bansi to form tomorrow evening (Sunday). It will move right through Mauritius and Reunion. It will hit the islands on Monday (January 12, 2015) and take two-three days to pass over them. The cyclone will be intensifying all the time.
January 10, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The NAVGEM Model has a scary prediction. That 'Bansi' is going to take 3-4 days to move past Rodrigues Island. Strengthening all the time. Please take this forecast coming from NAVGEM, with a large pinch of salt.
January 9, 2015, 0930 Hours GMT

The Canadian Model predicts the cyclone Bansi will form very close to Mauritius on January 11, 2015. It forecasts gustier storm in Mauritius than the GFS.  The NAVGEM has the worst news. Storm will form on January 11 and Mascareignes (Worst affected: Rodrigues Island) will face 150+ kph winds. The US Navy Model goes onto say Bansi will turn later into a 936 Mb super cyclone.(Away from the Mascareignes).
January 9, 2015 0600 Hours GMT

GFS predicts a central pressure of 975 Mb. So-so storm. About 140 kph sustained winds. Special GFS says Bansi will intensify into a cyclone on January 13, after it starts leaving Mascareignes waters.
January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT


SW Indian Ocean is going to spawn another cyclone 'Chedza' even as 'Bansi" will be intensifying. Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel on January 13, 2015.

January 9, 2015, 0530 Hours, GMT

Latest forecasts say the storm will move through Rodrigues as it keeps intensifying. The effect on Mauritius and Reunion will be comparatively less. It will turn into a very big storm after it moves away south from Mascareignes.
January 8, 2015, 1200 Hours GMT

NAVGEM envisages Bansi turning into something close to a super cyclone. Thanks heavens it will intensify to a central pressure of 929 mb (Wow!) only after it leaves the Mascareignes far behind. Phew!
January 8, 2015, 0530 Hours GMT


Latest reliable forecasts say the upcoming cyclone will be a bigger threat to Rodrigues than Mauritius and Reunion. The storm will begin to form in the next 48 hours.
January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

The Canadian Model says Bansi will form tomorrow (January 9, 2015) morning (Mauritius Time).  It  has a scary story for Philippines. A massive typhoon will hit the country on January 16, 2015. Though other major models say it will be just a depression hitting central Philippines.
January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

The US Navy's NAVGEM has a terrifying prediction. That Bansi will be a massive storm with central pressure of 956 mb and winds of 170+ kph. It will hit Rodrigues Island head-on.
January 8, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

Another possibility that the present low NW of Mauritius moves east in the next 4-5 days and THEN intensify into a storm. The storm in the Mozambique Channel forms first around January 12, 2015. If this happens the Mozambique Channel storm will become 'Bansi' and the 'Mauritius' storm becomes Chedza. In this scenario Chedza will affect the Rodrigues Island more than Mauritius and Reunion.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

It is possible that we are staring at two tropical storms in SW Indian Ocean (There are two 'lows' in SW Indian Ocean. One in the Mozambique Channel. Another near NE Mozambique coast) in the coming days. Bansi and Chedza. Bansi will form form first near Mauritius. Two days later (Around January 12) Chedza will form in the Mozambique Channel.
January 8, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT


Cyclone 'Bansi' Is coming. It exists as a low north-west of Mauritius now. In the next 48 hours it will intensify into a tropical cyclone and move into Mauritius and La Reunion. That is on January 11-12. Rodrigues will be partially affected. Bansi will be a powerful storm with a central pressure of 985 mb. It will move over the Mascareignes for 48 hours intensifying all the time. After meeting the westerlies it is expected to transform into a extra-tropical cyclone.

January 8, 2014, 0230 Hours GMT


Both the GFS and Special GFS foretell a tropical storm near Papua New Guinea in a day or two. The former says it will move south into the Pacific, the latter predicts it will hit Queensland on January 13, 2015. CMC and NAVGEM support the formation of the cyclone on January 9.

January 7, 2015, 0500 Hours, GMT



Tropical Cyclone Bansi exists now as a low near the coast of NE Mozambique. It will intensify and move into Reunion and Mauritius on January 12, 2015. In sharp contrast Special GFS says the Bansi will form in the Mozambique Channel and move into Madagascar on January 13, 2015. See the storm forming and grow. LIVE.

January 7, 2015, 0430 Hours, GMT

Philippines is for another either a wet depression or a tropical storm around January 16, 2015.
January 7, 2015, 0330 Hours GMT

It is possible that the present low near Kimberley, NW Australia may not intensify into a cyclone but move inland just as a low pressure area. A rain-maker, nothing else. The NAVGEM, in contrast, says a big cyclone will form. The European model heartily agrees.
January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The European Model (Followed by Meteo France) says a low will develop near Mauritius tomorrow which will intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi on January 11-12. The CMC is bullish on Bansi. Expects it to form on January 9. It envisages a powerful storm with 150 kph winds but the horror story (coming from CMC) should be taken with a pinch of salt. The NAVGEM foresees two cyclones forming in the next 4 days. Bansi in the Mozambique Channel day after tomorrow and Chedza near Mauritius on January 12, 2015. Whew!

January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The latest GFS forecast hints at the cyclone in the SW Indian Ocean developing near the coast of SE Madagascar on January 12, 2015, and then moving in a SW direction, thus not affecting the Mascareignes.
January 7, 2015, 0300 Hours GMT

The Canadian model CMC has a horrifying prediction for the folks in the Mascareignes. It says the upcoming cyclone is going to be a large diameter storm. About 300-350 kilometres! Even worse follows. The storm is going to move over the area very slowly. That means real bad news.
January 6, 2015. 1200 Hours GMT 






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Tropical Cyclone Threat In South Pacific: Solomon, Vanuatu And New Caledonia Targets

January 6, 2015

Just as a storm is brewing near the  northern Australian coast, a tropical cyclone is about to be born near the Solomon Islands in South Pacific. It will remain a tropical depression as it crosses the islands but will intensify into a cyclone on January 11, 2015. It will then move south in the Pacific ocean and affect Vanuatu and New Caledonia Islands on January 13.

Another Tropical Depression is likely to move into the Philippines on January 15, 2015. Bad news to a country already reeling from floods from storm Jangmi.




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Forecast Models Say Mauritius Faces Real Threat Of A Cyclone In A Few Days January 2015

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates on Cyclone Bansi (January 2015)

January 5, 2015

Latest forecast models available with XWF-WEATHER strongly suggest the possibility of a large tropical cyclone hitting Mauritius, La Reunion and Rodrigues in a few days.

We have been saying in the last few days that a storm is likely in mid-January to hit Mascareignes. Latest predictions by all major forecast systems are unanimous now about that. It is just a question of when and how strong the storm will be. We give a brief summary of what different computer models foresee.



GFS

A low pressure area develops near north Madagascar in a day or two. It bobs around aimlessly till January 12, 2015 in South West Indian Ocean and then rapidly intensify into a cyclone by January 14. The storm forms just north of Mauritius and makes a direct hit on Rodrigues Island on January 15 on its journey south.

Special GFS

The low develops on January 11 about 300 kilometers NNW of Mauritius. It moves NNE for a few hundred kilometers intensifies and moves down again and passes through Rodrigues Island on january15-16, 2015.

European Model

The area where the low develops is the same as predicted by the above two models; Near the coast of north-eastern coast of Madagascar. On January 10. In a day or two it strengthen rapidly into a tropical cyclone and hits Mauritius-Reunion directly on January15-16, 2015.

Canadian CMC

The low forms within the next 24 hours a couple hundred kilometers north of Mauritius by January 6. It then comes near the island and rapidly intensifies into a cyclone on January 8 and affects the entire Mascareignes. We think this scenario seems less likely.

NAVGEM

The low pressure forms on January 7, 2015 a few hundred kilometers north of the Mascareignes and then starts moving south intensifying as it does so and hits the Mascareignes on Janaury 9-10, 2015. This possibility too does not hold much promise.

Update: January 6, 2015

Below is a water vapor satellite image of 97S, (Taken at 0000 hours GMT, today) the low pressure area that has formed near coast of south-east Madagascar. In the next few days it will move north into the "suspect area" (See map on top) and intensify into tropical cyclone Bansi.

Please also see Breaking Forecast News For latest updates
Also see Rainfall Prediction Maps for SW Indian Ocean
SEE 92S (CYCLONE BANSI) LIVE


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Seas Around Australia May Throw Out Many Storms Soon

January 5, 2015

After Western Pacific spawned the massive Hagupit and little rain-maker Jangmi, the attention has shifted to the seas around Australia. If forecasts are to be believed  that area is going to throw out many tropical cyclones in the coming days.

A low pressure area has already developed in the Timor Sea near Kimberley. It has come under NOAA's notice. It calls it "Invest" 99S. This storm is expected to intensify in the coming days into a tropical cyclone.

Bureau of Meteorology spokesman Neil Bennett has hinted that the low pressure may tun into a tropical cyclone in  the "Perth Now" newspaper. Mr Bennett said forecasters think the low will remain over land but may move over water late in the week and intensify into a tropical cyclone.

Another "Low" has formed near Papua New Guinea which is set to strengthen into a storm soon. Perhaps before the expected storm near Kimberley. It will become a tropical cyclone by January 7, 2015.



The Gulf of Carpentaria at the Queensland coast is also in the throes of giving birth to a cyclone.

So in the coming 7 days there are three potential cyclones waiting to be born in the seas near Australia.

We shall keep a close watch on the emerging situation and keep you posted.

South Western Indian Ocean

The forecast models persist with the prediction of a humdinger of a storm developing north of Mauritius on January 14, 2015. The storm is expected to intensify rapidly and move right through Rodrigues Island. Seems like the Mascarene Islands are in for really rough weather mid-January.

Expected Tracks Path of Upcoming cyclone at northern Australia coast. January 2015.
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