Breaking Forecast News. XWF-WEATHER: January 2015

Update: 0500 Hours GMT, January 6, 2015

97S MAY REMAIN A DEPRESSION: 98S LIKELY TO BE CYCLONE PROSPECT: Latest forecasts indicate that 97S may turn out to be just a depression. The real Invest (Storm) to watch is 98S. It lies now about a 1000 kilometers north-east of Mauritius. It is expected to turn into a tropical cyclone on January 29, 2015. This storm is likely to affect Rodrigues Island.

Update: 0630 Hours GMT, January 25, 2015

BOTH CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN MAY FORM SIMULTANEOUSLY ON JANUARY 28. The cyclone that will be born nearer to Mascareignes will be more powerful. The one that will rise a few hundred kilometers to the east of the former cyclone will not affect Mascareignes.  Since both cyclones will be born almost together it is difficult to say which will be Diamondra and which will be Eunice. The NOAA forecast says one of them will hit Rodrigues Island directly. But the European Model disagrees and predicts none of them will influence the Mascareignes.

Sidelights: January 25, 2015: The Canadian Model has an interesting prediction. The low pressure 96S that is currently hovering around north of Mauritius and Reunion will slip into the Mozambique Channel, intensify, jump over Madagascar and hit Mascareignes on February 3, 2015. Don't forget the pinch of salt.

The NAVGEM has another interesting forecast. The three lows that are now present in the Southern Indian Ocean will all turn into cyclones. The third one will hit Rodrigues island on January 30, 2015. According to it Mauritius and Reunion are safe. Salt! Salt!

Update: 0600 Hours GMT, January 24, 2015

TWO CYCLONES, DIAMONDRA AND EUNICE TO FORM IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IN NEXT TEN DAYS. The ocean is in ferment and various forecast models are throwing out mind-boggling possibilities. One of them even says three cyclones will form and two of them join together (Fujiwhara Interaction). But that seems unlikely. What is possible is that two cyclones will form in the next ten days. Cyclone Diamondra will form first. But that will not affect Mascareignes. The second storm, Eunice, is likely to do so. Keep in touch for updates.

Some interesting tidbits from the Canadian Forecast Model. It says three cyclones will form in the coming days, Two of them will not affect the Mascareignes. The third will form just north of Mauritius on January 30, 2015, and will affect the island on February 2. But this model is not as reliable as others. The NAVGEM model predicts two cyclones, one of which will be a monster. But none of them will affect the Mascareignes.

Update: 0700 Hours GMT, January 21, 2015

A CYCLONE MAY FORM IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN on January 26, 2015. in an area about 1200 kilometers ENE of Mauritius. It will not be as powerful as Bansi. Present forecasts indicate that it will not affect Mauritius and Reunion, but may have some influence on Rodrigues.  The European Model agrees that a cyclone will form but it says it will not affect even Rodrigues. We have to wait and watch what happens.

Forecast Update: 1530 Hrs GMT, January 19, 2015.
CYCLONES DIAMONDRA AND EUNICE ON THE HORIZON?
It is early days but there are indications that possibly two cyclones may be born in the South Indian Ocean in the coming fortnight. We will keep you informed. The area of the ocean about 1500 kilometers north-east of Mascareignes is in ferment right now. Whatever happens in the coming days will happen there. The disturbed area is likely to throw up a storm. How strong that is to be seen. But something is definitely brewing out there.

Present forecasts say it will be deep depression that will form on January 28 that will move south-easterly. If that happens it will not affect Mascareignes. It is still ten days to go. And we will keep a watch on the emerging situation.

The suspect area. Something will happen here by the end of January 2015