5A To Be Christened "Thane" Today: Will Move To Oman? Or Die Mid Sea?


Latest satellite image of 5A (6.00 hrs, UTC). It is a deep depression now and maybe christened "Thane" by today evening

Tropical storm 5A (Five A) may not reach Pakistan after all. It lies about 650 nautical miles south of Karachi now. Because of its influence  Karnataka is presently getting a drenching (Including Bangalore). The rains will continue in northern coastal Karnataka and southern coastal Maharashtra till tomorrow (Tuesday).



The storm will intensify in the next 24 hours into cyclone Thane by Monday afternoon (Nov 28, 2011)(UTC), move in a NW direction and then start self-destructing. As it weakens it may either...
  • Scenario 1: Curve north-easterly and die peacefully in the Arabian Sea. All it will do is bring some rains to Saurashtra on Tuesday (Nov 29, 2011)
  • Scenario 2: Moves slowly towards the Oman coast and then dissipate. But it will bring quite heavy rains to Oman. Especially the north-eastern coastal areas of the country for 3 days beginning Nov 30, 2011. Balochistan in Pakistan too will get some rains till December 2, 2011
Forecast Maps For 5A: Scenario 1

It brings some rains to Saurashtra and then subsides in the sea itself.

Scenario 2 Forecast Map

Rains in north-eastern coast of Oman for about 3 days, till December 2, 2011
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