UK MetOffice Says Arabian Sea Tropical Storm To Hit Saurashtra

This is the latest from the Indian Met department...

"A low pressure area has formed over eastcentral Arabian Sea and neighbourhood and associated upper aircyclonic circulation extends upto mid­tropospheric levels. The system is likely to  become more marked"

UK Met Office says the tropical storm has already formed and that it will slowly move into Saurashtra (Gujarat, India) in the next few days. The GFS forecast says the storm will hit southern Iran on June 12, 2011, Sunday night. Anyway, Here is the expected course and strength of the storm Keila.


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN


             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.06.2011


    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 18.3N  71.7E


  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY


  --------------     --------     --------        --------


 00UTC 06.06.2011  18.3N  71.7E     WEAK


 12UTC 06.06.2011  17.7N  71.8E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 00UTC 07.06.2011  17.5N  70.5E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 12UTC 07.06.2011  17.7N  70.5E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 08.06.2011  18.1N  70.0E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 12UTC 08.06.2011  18.4N  70.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 09.06.2011  18.9N  70.2E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE


 12UTC 09.06.2011  19.6N  70.2E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 10.06.2011  20.1N  70.1E    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE


 12UTC 10.06.2011  20.5N  70.1E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 11.06.2011  21.0N  69.7E    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


 12UTC 11.06.2011  21.5N  69.2E    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 00UTC 12.06.2011  22.1N  69.4E    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY






 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE


 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS


 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK


SOME OTHER FORECASTS FOR INDIA

• Mumbai will receive good rainfall today. That is Monday June 6, 2011. About 20 mm or may be more. Then it is a dry spell for a few days. Nest spell on June 9, Thursday.
• Goa will continue to receive rainfall over the next few days. So will coastal Karnataka.
• Surat and south Gujarat will receive heavy showers today (Monday, June 6, 2011) night. Saurashtra will remain mainly dry. It will get rainfall on Sunday. June 12, 2011.
• Vidarbha (Nagpur, Amravati) will receive good rainfall throughout Tuesday, June 7, 2011.

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